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Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios

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  • Marinella Cadoni
  • Roberta Melis
  • Alessandro Trudda

Abstract

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Marinella Cadoni & Roberta Melis & Alessandro Trudda, 2015. "Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0129471
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bianchi, Sergio & Pianese, Augusto, 2014. "Multifractional processes in finance," Risk and Decision Analysis, IOS Press, issue 5, pages 1-22.
    2. Sergio Bianchi, 2005. "Pathwise Identification Of The Memory Function Of Multifractional Brownian Motion With Application To Finance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 255-281.
    3. Sergio, Bianchi & Alessandro, Trudda, 2008. "Global Asset Return in Pension Funds: a dynamical risk analysis," MPRA Paper 12011, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jun 2008.
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    1. Cadoni, Marinella & Melis, Roberta & Trudda, Alessandro, 2017. "Pension funds rules: Paradoxes in risk control," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 20-29.
    2. Matthieu Garcin, 2019. "Fractal analysis of the multifractality of foreign exchange rates [Analyse fractale de la multifractalité des taux de change]," Working Papers hal-02283915, HAL.

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