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Origins of Post-COVID-19 Inflation in Central European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Natalie Dvorakova
  • Tomas Sestorad

Abstract

This paper examines the drivers of the post-pandemic surge in inflation in four small open economies: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. For this purpose, a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model with sign-zero restrictions and block exogeneity is employed. The results show that both foreign demand and foreign supply shocks have contributed significantly to inflation in the post-2020 period across countries, alongside notable contributions from domestic factors explaining differences among economies. Specifically, supply-side shocks are identified as the primary domestic factor across all countries, whereas domestic demand shocks were much less influential. Exchange rate shocks were pronounced in Hungary only, while monetary policy shocks have had a minimal impact on inflation since 2022 in all the countries considered. Additionally, we provide decompositions of core inflation, highlighting the predominance of domestic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalie Dvorakova & Tomas Sestorad, 2024. "Origins of Post-COVID-19 Inflation in Central European Countries," Working Papers 2024/5, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2024/5
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2024_05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julian di Giovanni & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 30240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; extraordinary events; inflation; sign-zero restrictions; small open economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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