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The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests

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  • Elena Andreou
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed change-point tests applied to conditional variance dynamics and conditional distributions of asset returns. These are CUSUM-type tests for beta-mixing processes and EDF-based tests for the residuals of such nonlinear dependent processes. Hence the tests apply to the class of ARCH and SV type processes as well as data-driven volatility estimators using high-frequency data. It is shown that some of the high-frequency volatility estimators substantially improve the power of the structural breaks tests especially for detecting changes in the tail of the conditional distribution. Similarly, certain types of filtering and transformation of the returns process can improve the power of CUSUM statistics. We also explore the impact of sampling frequency on each of the test statistics. Ce papier évalue la performance de plusieurs tests de changement structurel CUSUM et EDF pour la structure dynamique de la variance conditionelle et de la distribution conditionnelle. Nous étudions l'impact 1) de la fréquence des observations, 2) de l'utilisation des données de haute fréquence pour le calcul des variances conditionnelles et 3) de transformation des séries pour améliorer la puissance des tests.

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  • Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-25, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2004s-25
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    2. Cecilia Mancini & Vanessa Mattiussi & Roberto Renò, 2015. "Spot volatility estimation using delta sequences," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 261-293, April.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Robert Syrek, 2017. "MIDAS models in banking sector – systemic risk comparison," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(2), pages 165-181.
    4. Mobarek, Asma & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Mollah, Sabur & Hou, Ai Jun, 2016. "Determinants of time varying co-movements among international stock markets during crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2006. "Monitoring disruptions in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 77-124.
    6. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "The Effects of Additive Outliers and Measurement Errors when Testing for Structural Breaks in Variance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 449-468, August.
    7. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Constantinos Kourouyiannis, 2012. "Robust volatility forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 08-2012, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    8. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Liquidity Measurement Based on Bid-Ask Spread, Trading Frequency, and Liquidity Ratio: The Use of GARCH Model on Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX)," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200910, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    9. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
    10. Haipeng Xing & Hongsong Yuan & Sichen Zhou, 2017. "A Mixtured Localized Likelihood Method for GARCH Models with Multiple Change-points," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 8, pages 44-60, May.
    11. de Pooter, M.D. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2004. "Testing for changes in volatility in heteroskedastic time series - a further examination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO.

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