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Incertitude et effets macroéconomiques : mise à jour dans le contexte de la pandémie COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Moran
  • Adam Abdel Kader Touré
  • Dalibor Stevanovic

Abstract

La mesure d'incertitude macroéconomique canadienne développée dans le rapport CIRANO « Incertitude macroéconomique canadienne : mesure, évaluation et effets sur l'investissement » (Moran, Stevanovic et Touré, 2019) est mise à jour dans le contexte des événements liés à la pandémie COVID-19. Les données disponibles les plus récentes montrent que l'incertitude macroéconomique a brusquement augmenté depuis le début de 2020 et affiche présentement son niveau le plus élevé depuis les 40 dernières années. Notre modèle statistique suggère qu'un choc de cette ampleur aura des effets négatifs importants sur l'investissement et l'activité économique canadienne.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Moran & Adam Abdel Kader Touré & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "Incertitude et effets macroéconomiques : mise à jour dans le contexte de la pandémie COVID-19," CIRANO Papers 2020pe-33, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:circah:2020pe-33
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    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2020PE-33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Fortin‐Gagnon & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "A large Canadian database for macroeconomic analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 1799-1833, November.
    2. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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