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EU Strategic Dependencies: A Long View

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  • Vincent Vicard
  • Pauline Wibaux

Abstract

We analyze how trade dependencies have evolved over time to better understand how they relate to vulnerabilities. We focus on the EU-27 and apply the bottom-up approach laid out by the European Commission (EC) using trade data from 1996 to 2019. The number of dependent products has shown no clear pattern since the mid-1990s, nor has their sectoral composition. The geography of dependencies has, however, evolved towards dependencies concentrated on Chinese suppliers, but this shift had already occurred in 2010. The products identified as dependent exhibit significant churning over time: one out of five dependent products in 2018 was not identified as such one year later in 2019 and close to half of dependent products in 2014 were not identified as such five years later.Creation-Date: 2023-06

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Vicard & Pauline Wibaux, "undated". "EU Strategic Dependencies: A Long View," CEPII Policy Brief 2023-41, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2023-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach, 2022. "German-Chinese Trade Relations: How Dependent is the German Economy on China?," EconPol Policy Reports 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    3. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pierre Cotterlaz & Guillaume Gaulier & Aude Sztulman & Deniz Ünal, 2022. "Industrie pharmaceutique européenne : quand rentabilité rime avec vulnérabilité," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 423.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicente Ferreira & Joao Pedro Ferreira & Dario Guarascio & Francesco Zezza, 2024. "Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries," LEM Papers Series 2024/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Olimpia Fontana & Simone Vannuccini, 2024. "How to Institutionalise European Industrial Policy (for Strategic Autonomy and the Green Transition)," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-30, December.
    3. Kevin Lefebvre & Pauline Wibaux, 2024. "Import Dependencies: Where Does the EU Stand?," CEPII Policy Brief 2024-47, CEPII research center.
    4. Sébastien Jean & Ariell Reshef & Gianluca Santoni & Vincent Vicard, 2023. "Dominance on World Markets: the China Conundrum," CEPII Policy Brief 2023-44, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic autonomy; Dependent products; Trade dependencies; Economic security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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