Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures

We study the behavioral impact of announcements about the duration of a policy and their relationship with people's expectations in the context of the COVID-19 lockdowns. We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three moments of the first wave of the pandemic to test how intentions to comply with social-isolation measures depend on the duration of their possible extension. Individuals were more likely to reduce, and less likely to increase, their compliance effort if the hypothetical extension was longer than they expected, whereas positive surprises had a lesser impact. The behavioral response to the (mis)match between expected versus hypothesized extensions is consistent with expectations acting as reference points and can help explain the increase in observed physical proximity in Italy following lockdown extension announcements. Our findings suggest that public authorities should consider citizens’ expectations when announcing policy changes.