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Tax Cuts Starve the Beast! Evidence from Germany

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  • Clemens Fuest
  • Florian Neumeier
  • Daniel Stöhlker

Abstract

The ‘starving the beast’ hypothesis claims that tax cuts lead to lower public spending, rather than higher debt levels and higher taxes in the future. This paper uses the institutional setting of German fiscal federalism to its advantage in order to explore how fiscal policy reacts to exogenous tax revenue shocks. We use panel data from the German states covering the period from 1992 to 2011, and assess to what extent exogenous changes in tax revenues affect aggregate public expenditure as well as specific sub-categories of government spending. Applying the narrative approach pioneered by Romer and Romer (2009), we construct a measure of exogenous tax shocks. This allows us to identify the causal effect of tax changes on fiscal policy. Our results suggest that an exogenous decrease in tax revenues triggers a reduction in public spending of roughly the same amount, with a delay of two to three years. We find that a revenue decline of one Euro reduces public spending on administration and, with a larger delay, social security, by 30 to 45 cents in each case. Spending on infrastructure declines by ten cents. We find no significant effects on spending on education, legal protection and public safety, or culture.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2019. "Tax Cuts Starve the Beast! Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8009, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8009
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    Cited by:

    1. Emblemsvåg, Jan, 2022. "Wind energy is not sustainable when balanced by fossil energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    2. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Fernando M. Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules," Working Papers 2019-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Aug 2023.
    4. Fernando Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules," 2019 Meeting Papers 1181, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    taxation; fiscal policy; tax-spend; public expenditure; narrative approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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