IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7642.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China’s overinvestment and international trade conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

For a long time, China’s impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based on the recent discussion on possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, the paper investigates the sustainability of China’s investment- and export-driven growth model. It is shown that since the turn of the millennium buoyant capital inflows and low interest rates have been at the roots of overinvestment and misallocation of capital, which necessitated export subsidies to clear markets. The overinvestment boom is argued to have ended around 2014. Since then, the overcapacities have weakened China’s bargaining position in the US-Chinese trade conflict and have tempted the Chinese authorities to postpone a restructuring of the Chinese economy by low-interest credit provision. The resulting gradual reemergence of quasi soft budget constraints is seen to undermine China’s long-term growth potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China’s overinvestment and international trade conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 7642, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7642
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7642.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    2. William R. Cline, 2005. "The Case for a New Plaza Agreement," Policy Briefs PB05-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    4. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    5. Yingyi Qian & Chenggang Xu, 1998. "Innovation and Bureaucracy Under Soft and Hard Budget Constraints," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(1), pages 151-164.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    8. Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu & Mr. Nathan Porter & Elöd Takáts, 2009. "Interest Rate Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 2009/171, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    10. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 177-202, Summer.
    11. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    12. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    13. Baker, George & Gibbs, Michael & Holmstrom, Bengt, 1993. "Hierarchies and compensation: A case study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 366-378, April.
    14. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    15. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/267, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.
    17. Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. John C Caparusso & Jose M Garrido & Mr. Si Guo & Mr. Joong S Kang & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Daniel Law & Wei Liao & Ms. Nadia Rendak & Mr. Philippe Wingend, 2016. "Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem," IMF Working Papers 2016/203, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Adam S. Posen & Jiming Ha, . "US-China Economic Relations: From Conflict to Solutions—Part II," PIIE Briefings, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number PIIEB19-1, August.
    19. Vincent Bouvatier, 2006. "Hot Money Inflows in China: How the People's Bank of China Took up the Challenge," Post-Print halshs-00111153, HAL.
    20. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    21. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    22. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    23. Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Ichiro Muto, 2012. "Rebalancing China's Economic Growth: Some Insights from Japan's Experience," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 62-82, January.
    24. Murphy, Kevin J., 1985. "Corporate performance and managerial remuneration : An empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 11-42, April.
    25. Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    27. Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo.
    28. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
    29. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 1-35, July.
    30. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    31. John Knight & Sai Ding, 2010. "Why Does China Invest So Much?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(3), pages 87-117, Fall.
    32. repec:bla:etrans:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Yahua Wang & Angang Hu, 2007. "Multiple Forces Driving China's Economic Development: A New Analytic Framework," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 103-120, May.
    34. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Xu, Cheng-Gang & Maskin, Eric, 2001. "Soft Budget Constraint Theories: From Centralization to the Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Yuyaun Tan & Yiping Huang & Wing Thye Woo, 2016. "Zombie Firms and the Crowding-Out of Private Investment in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 32-55, Fall.
    37. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wan, Junmin & Qiu, Qiqi, 2023. "Industrial investments and housing prices in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 832-852.
    2. Schnabl, Gunther & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2020. "Monetary policy, financial regulation and financial stability: A comparison between the Fed and the ECB," Working Papers 166, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    2. Andreas Freytag & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary Policy Crisis Management as a Threat to Economic Order," CESifo Working Paper Series 6363, CESifo.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.
    4. Thomas Mayer & Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "Reasons for the Demise of Interest: Savings Glut and Secular Stagnation or Central Bank Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7954, CESifo.
    5. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo.
    6. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. GOTO Yasuo & Scott WILBUR, 2017. "Efficiency among Japanese SMEs: In the context of the zombie firm hypothesis and firm size," Discussion papers 17123, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Goto, Yasuo & Wilbur, Scott, 2019. "Unfinished business: Zombie firms among SME in Japan’s lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 105-112.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "The Failure of ECB Monetary Policy from a Mises-Hayek Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6388, CESifo.
    10. Schnabl Gunther & Müller Sebastian, 2019. "The Brexit as a Forerunner: Monetary Policy, Economic Order and Divergence Forces in the European Union," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Jiani Li & Jie Li & Tianhang Zhou, 2023. "State ownership and zombie firms: Evidence from China's 2008 stimulus plan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 853-876, October.
    12. Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Structural Decline: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 124-150, Winter/Sp.
    13. Xiaole Qiao & Lin Song & Xiaomin Fan, 2022. "How do zombie firms affect innovation: from the perspective of credit resources distortion," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 36(1), pages 67-87, May.
    14. Feng, Ling & Lang, Henan & Pei, Tingting, 2022. "Zombie firms and corporate savings: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 551-564.
    15. Ren, Meixu & Zhao, Jinxuan & Zhao, Jingmei, 2023. "The crowding-out effect of zombie companies on fixed asset investment: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Kong, Gaowen & Wang, Shuai & Wang, Yanan, 2022. "Fostering firm productivity through green finance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Kotone Yamada & Yukio Minoura & Jouchi Nakajima & Tomoyuki Yagi, 2023. "Corporate Finance Facility and Resource Allocation: Research Trends and Developments during the Spread of COVID-19," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    18. Zhang, Xiaoqian & Huang, Bin, 2022. "Does bank competition inhibit the formation of zombie firms?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1045-1060.
    19. Schnabl Gunther, 2020. "Soziale Marktwirtschaft damals und heute," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 1-24, May.
    20. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; investment; overinvestment; trade policy; credit growth; rebalancing; soft budget constraints; zombification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7642. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.