IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4649.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Ian McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

China has been provoked into speeding renmnibi internationalization. But despite rapid growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls—reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates—to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating (appreciating) exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People’s Bank of China should focus on tightly stabilizing the yuan/ dollar exchange rate to encourage naturally high wage increases for balancing China’s international competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4649
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4649.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    3. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    4. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2013. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy and Exchange Rate Flexibility by East Asian Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 48-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Eswar S. Prasad & Lei Ye, 2011. "The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 127-197.
    6. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782.
    7. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2012. "Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB12-23, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    11. Alexander Ballantyne & Megan Garner & Michelle Wright, 2013. "Developments in Renminbi Internationalisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 65-74, June.
    12. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2013. "The Unloved Dollar Standard: From Bretton Woods to the Rise of China," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199937004.
    14. Ronald McKinnon & Zhao Liu, 2013. "Modern Currency Wars : The United States versus Japan," Finance Working Papers 23714, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4249, CESifo.
    16. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1979. "Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195024098.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    3. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
    4. Tang, Bo, 2015. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    5. Xue GAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "Does exchange rate always affect the number of inbound tourists significantly in China?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 55-72, Spring.
    6. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    8. Yang‐Chao Wang & Jui‐Jung Tsai & Shushu Li & Yiying Huang, 2023. "The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 502-523, September.
    9. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2016. "Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 855-873.
    10. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Asonuma, Tamon, 2017. "Optimal Dynamic Path during the Transition of Exchange Rate Regime: Analysis of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Malaysia, and Singapore," ADBI Working Papers 765, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.
    12. Lihui Wang & Zhihong Liu & Huailong Shi, 2022. "The Impact of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on Regional Financial Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 154-184, September.
    13. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Warum der frühe Ausstieg aus der finanziellen Repression lohnt [Why an Early Exit from Financial Repression is Worthwhile]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(7), pages 498-503, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 1-35, July.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    4. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Monetary Policy Reform in a World of Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 26-2012, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Schnabl, Gunther, 2013. "The global move into the zero interest rate and high debt trap," Working Papers 121, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    7. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    8. McKinnon, Ronald, 2013. "The U.S. saving deficiency, current-account deficits, and deindustrialization: Implications for China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 449-458.
    9. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    10. Ronald Mckinnon, 2007. "Japan'S Deflationary Hangover: Wage Stagnation And The Syndrome Of The Ever-Weaker Yen," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(03), pages 309-334.
    11. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    12. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    13. Jarko Fidrmuc & Martin Siddiqui, 2015. "Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-varying Exchange Rate Basket," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 608-623, August.
    14. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    15. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    16. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Macroeconomic Policy Making, Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 531-544, August.
    17. Sophia Latsos & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 261-280, April.
    18. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Ronald I., McKinnon, 2011. "Beggar-thy-neighbor interest rate policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 759-775, September.
    20. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; informal dollar standard; internationalization of renminbi; exchange rate stabilization; inflation; financial repression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4649. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.