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Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution

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  • Andreas Hoffmann
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The paper analyses adverse investment, growth and distributional effects of ultra-loose monetary policies based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Mises. We argue that ultra-loose monetary policies create incentives to substitute real investment by financial investment. When interest rates are expected to fall in the long term, the marginal and average efficiency of investments fall along, dampening GDP growth. We further show that the prolonged period of very low interest rates tends to distribute income towards higher income classes. This helps explain why consumer price inflation in most advanced economies does not pick up despite unprecedented monetary expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5754
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2018. "Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 353-367, October.
    3. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Central Banking and Crisis Management from the Perspective of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 6179, CESifo.
    4. Schnabl Gunther & Müller Sebastian, 2019. "The Brexit as a Forerunner: Monetary Policy, Economic Order and Divergence Forces in the European Union," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    6. Desogus, Marco & Casu, Elisa, 2020. "On the Monetary Causes of Inequality: A Review of the Literature and an Alternate Way Forward," MPRA Paper 114362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andreas Freytag & Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Monetary Policy Crisis Management as a Threat to Economic Order," CESifo Working Paper Series 6363, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hayek; Mises; monetary overinvestment theory; asymmetric monetary policy; financial crisis; marginal productivity of investment; secular stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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