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China and its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilizing Influence?

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Listed:
  • Ronald Ian McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth. However, linked to US low interest rates, Chinese sterilization policies and potentially subsidized capital allocation in China the real yuan/dollar rate is undervalued. This has caused—both in China and the United States— structural distortions and threatens to undermine global growth and stability. We propose Sino-American policy coordination to escape from the policy dilemma, which continues to drive global imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "China and its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilizing Influence?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3449, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3449
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    2. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Schnabl, Gunther & Freitag, Stephan, 2010. "Reverse causality in global current accounts," Working Paper Series 1208, European Central Bank.
    4. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782.
    5. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence – EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November.
    10. Gunther Schnabl & Paul De Grauwe, 2004. "Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," International Finance 0403008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Feb 2005.
    11. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; exchange rate; financial stability; economic stability; international policy coordination; currency war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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