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How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts

Author

Listed:
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Markus Reischmann

Abstract

We asked experts from 113 countries polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey for their opinions on how to handle the crisis in Greece. 61.9% of the experts surveyed were not in favour of Greece exiting the Eurozone in the course of the negotiations held in June and July 2015. However, experts in countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Slovakia were in favour of Greece exiting the Eurozone. The share of experts who were in favour of Greece staying in the Eurozone increased to 69.8% in October 2015. 72.4% of experts surveyed believed that the IMF should provide credit to Greece and 83.6% stated that the IMF should engage in economic reform programmes. Econometric evidence shows that experts from those Eurozone countries with high public debt-to-GDP-ratios were less likely to support the Grexit: when the debt-to-GDP-ratio increased by one percentage point, the likelihood of survey participants favouring the Grexit decreased by around 0.35 percentage points. Support for IMF reforms, by contrast, proved far less controversial.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5860, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5860
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5860.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Wie soll mit der Krise in Griechenland umgegangen werden? Eine Umfrage unter internationalen Experten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(10), pages 34-36, May.
    2. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren C., 2017. "Holding out for a better deal: Brinkmanship in the Greek bailout negotiations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Sebastian Blesse & Annika Havlik & Friedrich Heinemann, 2021. "Euro area reform preferences of Central and Eastern European economic experts," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 155-179, February.
    4. Boumans Dorine & Garnitz Johanna, 2017. "Ifo World Economic Survey Database – An International Economic Expert Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 71-80, February.
    5. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Wirtschaftsreformen in Griechenland: Eine Heraklesaufgabe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(06), pages 22-25, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greece; Grexit; experts' survey; public debt crisis; IMF; international organisations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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