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Holding out for a better deal: Brinkmanship in the Greek bailout negotiations

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  • Pitsoulis, Athanassios
  • Schwuchow, Sören C.

Abstract

Greece and its creditors concluded negotiations over a third bailout by signing a Memorandum of Understanding on 19 August 2015. The dominant view among most economic policy analysts and commentators seems to be that the actions of the Greek government in the months before the deal have been erratic and lacked coordination. In this paper we argue instead that the decisions of the Greek negotiators, including asking the voters to reject the earlier terms demanded by the creditors in a referendum, can be explained by the logic of brinkmanship. We develop a game-theoretic model to show that the actions of the Greek government are consistent with a strategy aimed at securing concessions, which can be used to bolster domestic approval.

Suggested Citation

  • Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Sören C., 2015. "Holding out for a better deal: Brinkmanship in the Greek bailout negotiations," MPRA Paper 67918, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67918
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    1. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2015. "Political economy of fiscal unions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 147-157.
    2. Kasimati, Evangelia & Veraros, Nikolaos, 2013. "Should Greece adopt a dual-currency regime to resolve its economic crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 588-600.
    3. Provopoulos, George A., 2014. "The Greek Economy and Banking System: Recent Developments and the Way Forward," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 240-249.
    4. Katsimi, Margarita & Moutos, Thomas, 2010. "EMU and the Greek crisis: The political-economy perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 568-576, December.
    5. Karl Whelan, 2014. "TARGET2 and central bank balance sheets [The economics of TARGET2 balances]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 79-137.
    6. Baltas, Nicholas C., 2013. "The Greek financial crisis and the outlook of the Greek economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 32-37.
    7. Mark Weisbrot & David Rosnick & Stephan Lefebvre, 2015. "The Greek Economy: Which Way Forward?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2015-04, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    8. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    9. Samitas, Aristeidis & Tsakalos, Ioannis, 2013. "How can a small country affect the European economy? The Greek contagion phenomenon," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 18-32.
    10. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5860, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2019. "How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece: Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 375-399, September.
    2. Lucio Baccaro & Björn Bremer & Erik Neimanns, 2021. "Till austerity do us part? A survey experiment on support for the euro in Italy," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 401-423, September.
    3. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5860, CESifo.
    5. Sotirios Zartaloudis, 2024. "Greece’s 2015 Eurozone Bailout “Renegotiation”: Beware of Greeks Bearing “Unpolitics”?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 12.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek debt crisis; Brinkmanship; Crisis management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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