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Migration and Climate Change in Rural Africa

Author

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  • Cristina Cattaneo
  • Emanuele Massetti

Abstract

We analyse whether migration is an adaptation that households employ to cope with climate in Ghana and Nigeria. If migration is part of the present adaptation portfolio of households in developing countries, it is reasonable to expect that it will also be an adaptation to future climate change. It is important to stress that we are interested in long-term climatic conditions rather than in short-term weather fluctuations. The data to test these predictions are drawn from two different household surveys: the Nigeria General Household Survey and the Ghana Living Standard Survey. We find a hill-shaped relationship between temperature in the dry season and the propensity to migrate in households that operate farms. We also find a significant hill-shaped relationship between precipitations in the wet seasons and the propensity to migrate in farm households. Climate has instead no significant impact on the propensity to migrate in non-farm households. Climate change scenarios generated by General Circulation model reveal that, ceteris paribus, migration may decline in Ghana and in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2015. "Migration and Climate Change in Rural Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 5224, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marion Borderon & Patrick Sakdapolrak & Raya Muttarak & Endale Kebede & Raffaella Pagogna & Eva Sporer, 2019. "Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(18), pages 491-544.
    2. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    3. D. Abdoul Karim Zanhouo & A. Berenger Ismael Nana, 2019. "Modeling Climate Change Impact on Health and Population Migration: A Systematic Review," Economics Literature, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, June.
    4. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change impacts; migration; development economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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