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How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Herz
  • Daniel Schunk
  • Christian Zehnder

Abstract

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism leads to an innovation enhancing effect, judgmental overconfidence inhibits innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4084, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4084
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; entrepreneurship; overconfidence; experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights

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