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What Moves the European Carbon Market? - Insights from Conditional Jump Models

Author

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  • Marc Gronwald
  • Janina Ketterer

Abstract

This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump-GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon price movement well and, moreover, shows that between 40 and 60 percent of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon markets are identified as important drivers of these price spikes. These results can lead regulators the way if smoother carbon prices are desired.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2012. "What Moves the European Carbon Market? - Insights from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3795, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Borghesi, Simone & Cainelli, Giulio & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2015. "Linking emission trading to environmental innovation: Evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 669-683.
    3. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    4. Beat Hintermann & Sonja Peterson & Wilfried Rickels, 2016. "Price and Market Behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS: A Review of the Literature," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 108-128.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emission allowance prices; GARCH; jumps; jump-induced variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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