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Assessing Horizontal Mergers under Uncertain Efficiency Gains

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  • Philippe Choné
  • Laurent Linnemer

Abstract

The analysis of horizontal mergers hinges on a tradeoff between unilateral effects and efficiency gains. The article examines the role of uncertainty (on the efficiency gains) in this tradeoff. Common wisdom is that the antitrust authorities should be very cautious about random gains. Our results show that dismissing efficiency gains on the sole ground that they are uncertain would not be theoretically founded. Indeed, the attitude towards uncertainty depends on the curvature of the social objective function. We exhibit a number of situations where the objective is convex in the efficiency gains, implying that competition authorities should welcome the risk for a given expectation of efficiency gains. Implications for empirical merger analysis are exposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Choné & Laurent Linnemer, 2006. "Assessing Horizontal Mergers under Uncertain Efficiency Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 1726, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1726
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    Cited by:

    1. Lang, Matthias, 2017. "Legal uncertainty as a welfare enhancing screen," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 274-289.
    2. Harrington, Joseph E., 2021. "There may be no pass through of a merger-related cost efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Bisceglia, Michele & Piccolo, Salvatore & Tarantino, Emanuele, 2023. "M&A advisory and the merger review process," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Le Pape, Nicolas & Zhao, Kai, 2014. "Horizontal mergers and uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-31.
    5. Emilie Dargaud, 2013. "Horizontal mergers, efficiency gains and remedies," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 349-372, October.
    6. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2007. "Fiscal policy, monopolistic competition, and finite lives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 325-359, January.
    7. Bernard Franck & Nicolas Le Pape, 2020. "The limited liability effect: Implications for anticompetitive horizontal mergers," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(6), pages 2082-2102, December.
    8. Choné, Philippe & Linnemer, Laurent, 2020. "Linear demand systems for differentiated goods: Overview and user’s guide," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Amir, Rabah & Diamantoudi, Effrosyni & Xue, Licun, 2009. "Merger performance under uncertain efficiency gains," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 264-273, March.
    10. Kojun Hamada, 2012. "Uncertainty and Horizontal Mergers," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 168(2), pages 252-265, June.
    11. Rabah Amir & Jim Y. Jin & Michael Troege, 2022. "On the limits of free trade in a Cournot world: When are restrictions on trade beneficial?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 2036-2057, November.
    12. Amir, Rabah & Erickson, Philip & Jin, Jim, 2017. "On the microeconomic foundations of linear demand for differentiated products," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 641-665.
    13. Shieh Shiou & Huang Chi-Fei & Chen Hsiao-Chi, 2013. "Can Horizontal Mergers Without Synergies Increase Consumer Welfare? Cournot and Bertrand Competition Under Uncertain Demand," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 453-484, April.
    14. Ding, Wei & Fan, Cuihong & Wolfstetter, Elmar G., 2013. "Horizontal mergers with synergies: Cash vs. profit-share auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 382-391.
    15. Cabolis, C. & Manasakis, C., 2016. "R&D investments fostering horizontal mergers," UC3M Working papers. Economics 23280, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    16. Raffaele Fiocco & Dongyu Guo, 2015. "Mergers between regulated firms with unknown efficiency gains," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 19(4), pages 299-326, December.
    17. Amir, Rabah & Jin, Jim Y. & Lasselle, Laurence, 2023. "Uniform, efficient and independent Ramsey taxes across markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 373-386.
    18. Langinier, Corinne & Ray Chaudhuri, Amrita, 2024. "Merger Review under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers 2024-9, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    19. Yan He & Yung-ho Chiu & Bin Zhang, 2020. "Prevaluating Technical Efficiency Gains From Potential Mergers and Acquisitions in China’s Coal Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    merger analysis; antitrust; efficiency gains; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices

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