IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11394.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does a Lack of Trust Boost Populist Political Parties in Europe? Causal Evidence from Three Methodologies

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica Di Cocco
  • Eugenio Levi
  • Rama Dasi Mariani
  • Steven Stillman

Abstract

Existing research has identified several economic and cultural determinants of populist voting. We focus on a related explanation: whether populist leaders are able to capitalize on a sense of distrust between individuals. There is currently limited causal evidence on the relationship between interpersonal trust and support for populist parties, and the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship are not well understood. Using three distinct causal identification strategies, each grounded in different assumptions, we find consistent evidence that a deficit in trust significantly bolsters support for populist political parties throughout Europe. Notably, this influence extends beyond ideological boundaries, encompassing both far-right and far-left populist parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Di Cocco & Eugenio Levi & Rama Dasi Mariani & Steven Stillman, 2024. "Does a Lack of Trust Boost Populist Political Parties in Europe? Causal Evidence from Three Methodologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11394, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11394.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessandra Fogli & Raquel Fernandez, 2009. "Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 146-177, January.
    2. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2024. "The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 349-374, January.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    4. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2019. "The Surge of Economic Nationalism in Western Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 128-151, Fall.
    5. Raymond Fisman & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Corruption, Norms, and Legal Enforcement: Evidence from Diplomatic Parking Tickets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 1020-1048, December.
    6. Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc, 2010. "Inherited Trust and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2060-2092, December.
    7. Eugenio Levi & Rama Dasi Mariani & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2017. "Demand and Supply of Populism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1703, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2017.
    9. Francisco Herreros & Henar Criado, 2009. "Social Trust, Social Capital and Perceptions of Immigration," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57, pages 337-355, June.
    10. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Populism and Civil Society," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 863-895, October.
    11. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Sonno, Tommaso, 2018. "Populism: Demand and Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 11871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Maxim Ananyev & Sergei Guriev, 2019. "Effect of Income on Trust: Evidence from the 2009 Economic Crisis in Russia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1082-1118.
    13. Dani Rodrik, 2021. "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 133-170, August.
    14. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    15. Francisco Herreros & Henar Criado, 2009. "Social Trust, Social Capital and Perceptions of Immigration," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57(2), pages 337-355, June.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/432sbils8u9t7qa99cii5psht1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Valerio Pellegrini & Valeria De Cristofaro & Marco Salvati & Mauro Giacomantonio & Luigi Leone, 2021. "Social Exclusion and Anti-Immigration Attitudes in Europe: The mediating role of Interpersonal Trust," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 697-724, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," Working Papers 21_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Eugenio Levi & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 833-875, October.
    3. Chen, Shuai, 2023. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chen, Shuai, 2020. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 652, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Cuccu, Liliana & Pontarollo, Nicola, 2024. "Logistic hubs and support for radical-right populism: Evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    7. Vigvári, Gábor, 2022. "Transzformáció és a populizmus a visegrádi országokban [Transformation and populism in the V4 countries]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 339-366.
    8. Campo, Francesco & Giunti, Sara & Mendola, Mariapia, 2024. "Refugee crisis and right-wing populism: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2024. "The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 349-374, January.
    10. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo & Tedeschi, Gian Luca, 2022. "Strangers and Foreigners: Trust and Attitudes toward Citizenship," IZA Discussion Papers 15042, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "Fear and Loathing in Times of Distress Causal Impact of Social and Economic Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-17, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    12. Bellucci, Davide & Conzo, Pierluigi & Zotti, Roberto, 2019. "Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201915, University of Turin.
    13. Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Arthur Silve, 2020. "Migration and Cultural Change," Working Papers 2020-10, CEPII research center.
    14. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    15. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Dávila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind versus unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline and the rise of populism in the USA and Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 951-977.
    16. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Győző Gyöngyösi & Emil Verner, 2022. "Financial Crisis, Creditor‐Debtor Conflict, and Populism," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2471-2523, August.
    18. Barone, Guglielmo & Kreuter, Helena, 2021. "Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. repec:irs:cepswp:2024-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Economidou Claire & Karamanis Dimitris & Kechrinioti Alexandra & Xesfingi Sofia, 2020. "The Role of Social Capital in Shaping Europeans’ Immigration Sentiments," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, January.
    21. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Litina, Anastasia & Özgüzel, Cem & Yu, Chan, 2024. "Corruption Exposure, Political Trust, and Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 17553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    populism; trust; immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.