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Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States

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  • Enrico Cantoni
  • Vincent Pons

Abstract

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008–2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2022. "Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1226-1272, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:4:p:1226-72
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201660
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Moriconi & Giovanni Peri & Riccardo Turati, 2022. "Are Immigrants more Left leaning than Natives?," NBER Working Papers 30523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dev, Divya & Poblete-Cazenave, Rubén & Toppeta, Alessandro, 2024. "Voting from abroad: Assessing the impact of local turnout on migrants’ voting behavior," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 663-678.
    3. Brian Jabarian & Elia Sartori, 2024. "Critical Thinking and Storytelling Contexts," CESifo Working Paper Series 11282, CESifo.
    4. Ivan Badinski & Amy Finkelstein & Matthew Gentzkow & Peter Hull, 2023. "Geographic Variation in Healthcare Utilization: The Role of Physicians," NBER Working Papers 31749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2023. "Are Immigrants More Left Wing than Natives?," IZA Discussion Papers 16164, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Peter Lambert & Chris Larkin, 2024. "Has work from home shifted the US electoral map?," CEP Occasional Papers 67, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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