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Published Versus Sample Statistics From The ASM: Implications For The LRD

Author

Listed:
  • John Haltiwanger
  • Steven J Davis
  • Scott Schuh

Abstract

In principle, the Longitudinal Research Database ( LRD ) which links the establishments in the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) is ideal for examining the dynamics of firm and aggregate behavior. However, the published ASM aggregates are not simply the appropriately weighted sums of establishment data in the LRD . Instead, the published data equal the sum of LRD-based sample estimates and nonsample estimates. The latter reflect adjustments related to sampling error and the imputation of small-establishment data. Differences between the LRD and the ASM raise questions for users of both data sets. For ASM users, time-series variation in the difference indicates potential problems in consistently and reliably estimating the nonsample portion of the ASM. For LRD users, potential sample selection problems arise due to the systematic exclusion of data from small establishments. Microeconomic studies based on the LRD can yield misleading inferences to the extent that small establishments behave differently. Similarly, new economic aggregates constructed from the LRD can yield incorrect estimates of levels and growth rates. This paper documents cross-sectional and time-series differences between ASM and LRD estimates of levels and growth rates of total employment, and compares them with employment estimates provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics and County Business Patterns data. In addition, this paper explores potential adjustments to economic aggregates constructed from the LRD. In particular, the paper reports the results of adjusting LRD-based estimates of gross job creation and destruction to be consistent with net job changes implied by the published ASM figures.

Suggested Citation

  • John Haltiwanger & Steven J Davis & Scott Schuh, 1991. "Published Versus Sample Statistics From The ASM: Implications For The LRD," Working Papers 91-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:91-1
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/1991/CES-WP-91-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "Plant Turnover and Gross Employment Flows in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 48-71, January.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    2. Ethan Lewis, 2003. "Local, open economies within the U.S.: how do industries respond to immigration?," Working Papers 04-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    4. John Baldwin & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger, 1998. "A Comparison Of Job Creation And Job Destruction In Canada And The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 347-356, August.
    5. Adela Luque & Javier Miranda, 2000. "Technology Use and Worker Outcomes: Direct Evidence from Linked Employee-Employer Data," Working Papers 00-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Baldwin, John R. Jarmin , Ron S. Tang, Jianmin, 2002. "L'importance accrue des producteurs plus petits dans le secteur de la fabrication : comparaison Canada-États-Unis," Série de documents de recherche sur l'analyse économique (AE) 2002003f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    7. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John & Schuh, Scott, 1996. "Small Business and Job Creation: Dissecting the Myth and Reassessing the Facts," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 297-315, August.
    8. Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 1998. "Job reallocation and the business cycle: new facts for an old debate," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 271-357.
    9. Charles Ian Mead, 2004. "The Effects of Low-Valued Transactions on the Quality of U.S. International Export Estimates: 1994-1998," Working Papers 04-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. John R Baldwin & Ron S Jarmin & Jianmin Tang, 2002. "The Trend to Smaller Producers in Manufacturing in Canada and the U.S," Working Papers 02-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Robert H Mcguckin & Suzanne Peck, 1992. "Manufacturing Establishments Reclassified Into New Industries: The Effect Of Survey Design Rules," Working Papers 92-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    12. Baldwin, John R. Jarmin , Ron S. Tang, Jianmin, 2002. "The Trend to Smaller Producers in Manufacturing: A Canada/U.S. Comparison," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2002003e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    13. Charles Ian Mead, 2004. "The Effects of Low-Valued Transactions on the Quality of U.S. International Export Estimates, 1994-1998," BEA Papers 0044, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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