Mitigation costs through alternative crop rotations in agriculture: an assessment for 5 European regions

To develop a better understanding of the agriculture sector in the context of climate change and the corresponding issue of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this paper aims at assessing regional mitigation potential and cost due to changing crops rotations at farm-scale in five European regions. For this purpose, we use rotation database from Reckling et al (2014) bringing accurate and exhaustive data about crop management in these areas. First, we complete the database with nitrous-oxide (N2O) emissions calculations and bring an additional hypothesis on precrop effect so as to capture the diversity of knowledge outlined in the agronomic literature. Then, GHG abatement cost is assessed using a bottom-up approach and assuming that farmers are maximizing their profit. In the literature on mitigation cost assessment, the abatement effort is generally considered as marginal and hence is added to previous cumulated efforts of reduction. In contrast, this study analyses rotation switch which implies a complete switch of cropland systems on several years (up to 6 years). Results show that aggregated “win-win” abatement potential in the five European regions could reach a maximum of 35% of the baseline soil N2O emissions of arable areas. The total dry matter production is increasing, while the area under cereal production is decreasing to this level of GHG abatement. Consequently, these findings tend to indicate that variations in agricultural production linked to a mitigation policy, while generating important changes in cropping systems, would not necessarily endanger food security.