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Forecasting the Impact of Sociodemographic Changes On Travel Demand: Experiments With a Dynamic Microsimulation Model System

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  • Goulias, Konstadinos G.

Abstract

Travel demand analysis and forecasting have developed rapidly over the past decade and are now entering a new "dynamic era" characterized by the recognition that time is an indispensable dimension of travel demand models (for overviews on the subject see Kitamura, 1990, and Pas, 1990). This paper addresses the development of new forecasting methods that explicitly account for this dynamic character of travel demand. The new approach, Microanalytic Integrated Demographic Accounting System (MIDAS), attempts to combine dynamic models of travel behavior with sociodemographic and economic microanalytic simulation. The strengths of this model system are: 1) the internal, to the model system, production of sociodemographic and economic forecasts, and 2) the flexibility of the new forecasting tool. In this paper the method is briefly described and major emphasis is given to experiments on the impact of sociodemographic changes on travel demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Goulias, Konstadinos G., 1992. "Forecasting the Impact of Sociodemographic Changes On Travel Demand: Experiments With a Dynamic Microsimulation Model System," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5zj9m2wm, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt5zj9m2wm
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    1. Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Panel Analysis in Transportation Planning: An Overview," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt86v0f7zh, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kharoufeh, Jeffrey P. & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2002. "Nonparametric identification of daily activity durations using kernel density estimators," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 59-82, January.
    2. Elisa Baroni & Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Orcutt’s Vision, 50 years on," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 65, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.

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