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Vacation length choice: A dynamic mixed multinomial logit model

Author

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  • Grigolon, Anna B.
  • Borgers, Aloys W.J.
  • Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M.
  • Timmermans, Harry J.P.

Abstract

This paper uses panel data to develop and estimate a dynamic model of choice of the length of stay of a vacation, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependency. Length of stay options vary from short (1–3 nights), medium (4–9 nights) to long vacations (10 nights or more) and the decision not to go on vacation in a particular year. Independent variables include family lifecycle stage, income, month and lags of the dependent variable. Results indicate that long holidays are most strongly affected by trips made previously in the same year than medium and short vacations. In contrast, there is an increased need for a vacation when any medium or long trips were not yet made in the current year. Month-specific variables confirm that respondents have preferences for making leisure trips during the main holidays and warm seasons. The observed differences given the various lifecycle stages reflect imposed constraints given age and/or household composition that are typical of each particular group.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigolon, Anna B. & Borgers, Aloys W.J. & Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2014. "Vacation length choice: A dynamic mixed multinomial logit model," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 158-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:158-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet & Òscar Saladié & Salvador Anton Clavé, 2020. "High-speed rail, tourists’ destination choice and length of stay: A survival model analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 578-597, June.
    4. Wong, Melvin & Farooq, Bilal & Bilodeau, Guillaume-Alexandre, 2016. "Next Direction Route Choice Model for Cyclist Using Panel Data," 57th Transportation Research Forum (51st CTRF) Joint Conference, Toronto, Ontario, May 1-4, 2016 319265, Transportation Research Forum.
    5. Gómez-Déniz, E. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling bimodality of length of tourist stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 131-151.
    6. Christer Thrane, 2016. "Modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1352-1366, December.
    7. Viglia, Giampaolo & Dolnicar, Sara, 2020. "A review of experiments in tourism and hospitality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Jackman, Mahalia & Lorde, Troy & Naitram, Simon & Greenaway, Tori, 2020. "Distance matters: the impact of physical and relative distance on pleasure tourists' length of stay in Barbados," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Viteri Mejía, César & Brandt, Sylvia, 2015. "Managing tourism in the Galapagos Islands through price incentives: A choice experiment approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Francesco Scotti & Andrea Flori & Piercesare Secchi & Marika Arena & Giovanni Azzone, 2024. "Heterogeneous drivers of overnight and same-day visits," Papers 2402.05679, arXiv.org.
    11. Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos, 2016. "An efficient method for modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1367-1379, December.
    12. Alén, Elisa & Nicolau, Juan Luis & Losada, Nieves & Domínguez, Trinidad, 2014. "Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 19-32.
    13. Tsung-Hsien Tsai & Chien-Min Chen, 2016. "Research Note: Exploring Preferences for Liquor Souvenirs at a Tourist Destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 189-199, February.
    14. Paulo H A Feitosa & Amanda B A Silva, 2022. "Length of stay and satisfaction shaping the competitiveness of international business tourism in São Paulo city, Brazil," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 728-747, May.
    15. Nthambi, Mary & Markova-Nenova, Nonka & Wätzold, Frank, 2021. "Quantifying Loss of Benefits from Poor Governance of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: A Discrete Choice Experiment with Farmers in Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    16. Nthambi, Mary & Wätzold, Frank & Markova-Nenova, Nonka, 2018. "Quantifying benefit losses from poor governance of climate change adaptation projects: A discrete choice experiment with farmers in Kenya," MPRA Paper 94678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Thrane, Christer, 2016. "Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-184.
    18. Zhang, Hanyuan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wen, Long & Song, Haiyan & Liu, Chang, 2023. "Has COVID-19 changed tourist destination choice?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Carmen Pérez-Cabañero & Amparo Cervera-Taulet & Walesska Schlesinger, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of length of stay on the quality of service experience, satisfaction and loyalty," International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Springer;International Association of Public and Non-Profit Marketing, vol. 14(2), pages 253-268, June.
    20. Tsai, Tsung-Hsien, 2016. "Homogeneous service with heterogeneous products: Relationships among airline ticket fares and purchase fences," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 164-175.
    21. Rodríguez, Xosé A. & Martínez-Roget, Fidel & González-Murias, Pilar, 2018. "Length of stay: Evidence from Santiago de Compostela," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 9-19.
    22. Flora Maria Díaz-Pérez & Carlos Gustavo García-González & Alan Fyall, 2021. "Accommodation, Seasonality and Domestic Tourism to National Parks: Implications for Environmental Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.

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