IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/touman/v41y2014icp158-167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vacation length choice: A dynamic mixed multinomial logit model

Author

Listed:
  • Grigolon, Anna B.
  • Borgers, Aloys W.J.
  • Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M.
  • Timmermans, Harry J.P.

Abstract

This paper uses panel data to develop and estimate a dynamic model of choice of the length of stay of a vacation, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependency. Length of stay options vary from short (1–3 nights), medium (4–9 nights) to long vacations (10 nights or more) and the decision not to go on vacation in a particular year. Independent variables include family lifecycle stage, income, month and lags of the dependent variable. Results indicate that long holidays are most strongly affected by trips made previously in the same year than medium and short vacations. In contrast, there is an increased need for a vacation when any medium or long trips were not yet made in the current year. Month-specific variables confirm that respondents have preferences for making leisure trips during the main holidays and warm seasons. The observed differences given the various lifecycle stages reflect imposed constraints given age and/or household composition that are typical of each particular group.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigolon, Anna B. & Borgers, Aloys W.J. & Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2014. "Vacation length choice: A dynamic mixed multinomial logit model," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 158-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:158-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517713001647
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Construction of experimental designs for mixed logit models allowing for correlation across choice observations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 720-734, July.
    2. Alegre, Joaquín & Mateo, Sara & Pou, Llorenç, 2011. "A latent class approach to tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 555-563.
    3. Hess, Stephane & Adler, Thomas & Polak, John W., 2007. "Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 221-233, May.
    4. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Butler, Richard & Correia, Antónia, 2010. "The length of stay of golf tourism: A survival analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 13-21.
    5. António Gomes de Menezes & Ana Moniz & José Cabral Vieira, 2008. "The Determinants of Length of Stay of Tourists in the Azores," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 205-222, March.
    6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    7. Juan L. Nicolau & Francisco J. Más, 2006. "Simultaneous analysis of whether and how long to go on holidays," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1077-1092, November.
    8. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, October.
    9. Grigolon, Anna B. & Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2012. "The influence of low-fare airlines on vacation choices of students: Results of a stated portfolio choice experiment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1174-1184.
    10. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
    11. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
    12. Kiron Chatterjee, 2011. "Modelling the dynamics of bus use in a changing travel environment using panel data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 487-509, May.
    13. Kitamura, Ryuichi & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Fujii, Satoshi, 2003. "The effectiveness of panels in detecting changes in discrete travel behavior," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 191-206, February.
    14. Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Panel Analysis in Transportation Planning: An Overview," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt86v0f7zh, University of California Transportation Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aguilar, Mª. Isabel & Díaz, Bárbara, 2019. "Length of stay of international tourists in Spain: A parametric survival analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele & Zara, Andrea, 2015. "Micro-economic determinants of tourist expenditure: A quantile regression approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-30.
    3. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet & Òscar Saladié & Salvador Anton Clavé, 2020. "High-speed rail, tourists’ destination choice and length of stay: A survival model analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 578-597, June.
    4. Wong, Melvin & Farooq, Bilal & Bilodeau, Guillaume-Alexandre, 2016. "Next Direction Route Choice Model for Cyclist Using Panel Data," 57th Transportation Research Forum (51st CTRF) Joint Conference, Toronto, Ontario, May 1-4, 2016 319265, Transportation Research Forum.
    5. Gómez-Déniz, E. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling bimodality of length of tourist stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 131-151.
    6. Christer Thrane, 2016. "Modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1352-1366, December.
    7. Viglia, Giampaolo & Dolnicar, Sara, 2020. "A review of experiments in tourism and hospitality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Jackman, Mahalia & Lorde, Troy & Naitram, Simon & Greenaway, Tori, 2020. "Distance matters: the impact of physical and relative distance on pleasure tourists' length of stay in Barbados," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Viteri Mejía, César & Brandt, Sylvia, 2015. "Managing tourism in the Galapagos Islands through price incentives: A choice experiment approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Francesco Scotti & Andrea Flori & Piercesare Secchi & Marika Arena & Giovanni Azzone, 2024. "Heterogeneous drivers of overnight and same-day visits," Papers 2402.05679, arXiv.org.
    11. Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos, 2016. "An efficient method for modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1367-1379, December.
    12. Alén, Elisa & Nicolau, Juan Luis & Losada, Nieves & Domínguez, Trinidad, 2014. "Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 19-32.
    13. Tsung-Hsien Tsai & Chien-Min Chen, 2016. "Research Note: Exploring Preferences for Liquor Souvenirs at a Tourist Destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 189-199, February.
    14. Paulo H A Feitosa & Amanda B A Silva, 2022. "Length of stay and satisfaction shaping the competitiveness of international business tourism in São Paulo city, Brazil," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 728-747, May.
    15. Nthambi, Mary & Markova-Nenova, Nonka & Wätzold, Frank, 2021. "Quantifying Loss of Benefits from Poor Governance of Climate Change Adaptation Projects: A Discrete Choice Experiment with Farmers in Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    16. Nthambi, Mary & Wätzold, Frank & Markova-Nenova, Nonka, 2018. "Quantifying benefit losses from poor governance of climate change adaptation projects: A discrete choice experiment with farmers in Kenya," MPRA Paper 94678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Thrane, Christer, 2016. "Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-184.
    18. Zhang, Hanyuan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wen, Long & Song, Haiyan & Liu, Chang, 2023. "Has COVID-19 changed tourist destination choice?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Carmen Pérez-Cabañero & Amparo Cervera-Taulet & Walesska Schlesinger, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of length of stay on the quality of service experience, satisfaction and loyalty," International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Springer;International Association of Public and Non-Profit Marketing, vol. 14(2), pages 253-268, June.
    20. Tsai, Tsung-Hsien, 2016. "Homogeneous service with heterogeneous products: Relationships among airline ticket fares and purchase fences," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 164-175.
    21. Rodríguez, Xosé A. & Martínez-Roget, Fidel & González-Murias, Pilar, 2018. "Length of stay: Evidence from Santiago de Compostela," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 9-19.
    22. Flora Maria Díaz-Pérez & Carlos Gustavo García-González & Alan Fyall, 2021. "Accommodation, Seasonality and Domestic Tourism to National Parks: Implications for Environmental Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Budziński, Wiktor, 2019. "Simulation error in maximum likelihood estimation of discrete choice models," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 73-85.
    2. Cherchi, Elisabetta & Guevara, Cristian Angelo, 2012. "A Monte Carlo experiment to analyze the curse of dimensionality in estimating random coefficients models with a full variance–covariance matrix," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 321-332.
    3. Paleti, Rajesh, 2018. "Generalized multinomial probit Model: Accommodating constrained random parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    4. Ferrer-Rosell, Berta & Martínez-Garcia, Esther & Coenders, Germà, 2014. "Package and no-frills air carriers as moderators of length of stay," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 114-122.
    5. Staus, Alexander, 2008. "Standard and Shuffled Halton Sequences in a Mixed Logit Model," Working Papers 93856, Universitaet Hohenheim, Institute of Agricultural Policy and Agricultural Markets.
    6. Campbell, Danny & Hutchinson, W. George & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2006. "Using Discrete Choice Experiments to Derive Individual-Specific WTP Estimates for Landscape Improvements under Agri-Environmental Schemes: Evidence from the Rural Environment Protection Scheme in Irel," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 12220, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Abay, Kibrom A. & Berhane, Guush & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & Koru, Bethlehem & Abay, Kibrewossen, 2016. "Understanding farmers’ technology adoption decisions: Input complementarity and heterogeneity:," ESSP working papers 82, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Campbell, Danny & Hutchinson, W. George & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2006. "Lexicographic Preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments: Consequences on Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay Estimates," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 12224, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Ida, Takanori & Goto, Rei, 2009. "Interdependency among addictive behaviours and time/risk preferences: Discrete choice model analysis of smoking, drinking, and gambling," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 608-621, August.
    10. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Construction of experimental designs for mixed logit models allowing for correlation across choice observations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 720-734, July.
    11. Junyi Shen, 2009. "Latent class model or mixed logit model? A comparison by transport mode choice data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(22), pages 2915-2924.
    12. He, Xiaoyang & Poe, Gregory L., 2021. "Exploring the shelf-life of travel cost methods of valuing recreation for benefits transfer," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Hess, Stephane & Train, Kenneth E., 2011. "Recovery of inter- and intra-personal heterogeneity using mixed logit models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 973-990, August.
    14. Thrane, Christer, 2016. "Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-184.
    15. Marco A. Palma & Dmitry V. Vedenov & David Bessler, 2020. "The order of variables, simulation noise, and accuracy of mixed logit estimates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2049-2083, May.
    16. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A., 2021. "The landscape of econometric discrete choice modelling research," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    17. Crabbe, Marjolein & Akinc, Deniz & Vandebroek, Martina, 2014. "Fast algorithms to generate individualized designs for the mixed logit choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Campbell, Danny, 2007. "Combining mixed logit models and random effects models to identify the determinants of willingness to pay for rural landscape improvements," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7975, Agricultural Economics Society.
    19. Ida, Takanori & Takemura, Kosuke & Sato, Masayuki, 2015. "Inner conflict between nuclear power generation and electricity rates: A Japanese case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 61-69.
    20. Francisco Javier Amador & Rosa Marina González & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2004. "Preference heterogeneity and willingness to pay for travel time," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2004-12, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:158-167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/tourism-management .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.