IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/itsrrp/qt35j7r3t5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical Analysis of Traffic Breakdown Probability Distribution with Respect to Speed and Occupancy

Author

Listed:
  • Chow, Andy H.F.
  • Lu, Xiao-Yun
  • Qiu, Tony Z.

Abstract

From an operation viewpoint, traffic breakdown (from free-flow) was defined as when the average speed of traffic drops below a certain threshold. It is known that traffic breakdown is a stochastic phenomenon which can happen even when the traffic flow is below the capacity. The capacity has many definitions, such as that in HCM or the average of maximum daily flow. This study investigates the probability of breakdown at certain locations of freeway. The motivation is to find a practical capacity for each freeway section for active traffic control/operation purposes, which could be different from previous viewpoints. Capacity is usually expressed in terms of flow rate. Nevertheless, it is well known that a particular value of flow rate could represent two different traffic states: uncongested and congested. Therefore, simply considering flow rates as the main factor is inadequate for operational purpose. In this study, a bivariate Weibull distribution is adopted to model the probability of breakdown as a function of both mean speed and occupancy of the incoming traffic. The methodology of constructing and calibrating the bivariate distribution is introduced. In addition, three case studies are performed to test the methodology proposed herein. The case studies are carried out by using three different datasets: PORTAL, PeMS, and BHL (Berkeley Highway Lab). PORTAL is an archived data source collected from freeways in Oregon, while the other two are collected from freeways in California PATH. The datasets measure and process flow rates, occupancies, and speeds of traffic from the loop stations on the freeways. Empirical results derived and their potential applications are discussed for developing various traffic control strategies including Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and ramp metering.

Suggested Citation

  • Chow, Andy H.F. & Lu, Xiao-Yun & Qiu, Tony Z., 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Traffic Breakdown Probability Distribution with Respect to Speed and Occupancy," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt35j7r3t5, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt35j7r3t5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/35j7r3t5.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwon, Jaimyoung & Varaiya, Pravin & Skabardonis, Alexander, 2003. "Estimation of Truck Traffic Volume from Single Loop Detectors Using Lane-to-Lane Speed Correlation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt5h70x5j9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    2. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2004. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Working Papers 200403, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shengnan Li & Hu Yang & Minglun Li & Jianjun Dai & Pu Wang, 2023. "A Highway On-Ramp Control Approach Integrating Percolation Bottleneck Analysis and Vehicle Source Identification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Zhang, Lei & Levinson, David, 2010. "Ramp metering and freeway bottleneck capacity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 218-235, May.
    3. Lapardhaja, Servet & Jalota, Devansh & Doig, Jean & Almubarak, Abdullah & Cassidy, Michael, 2021. "Testing alternative treatments for underused carpool lanes on narrow freeways," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 139-149.
    4. Shao, Jing & Yang, Hangjun & Xing, Xiaoqiang & Yang, Liu, 2016. "E-commerce and traffic congestion: An economic and policy analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 91-103.
    5. Banks, James, 2006. "New Approach to Bottleneck Capacity Analysis: Second Interim Report, Work Accomplished During Fiscal Year 2004-2005," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4089969k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. Hall, Jonathan D., 2018. "Pareto improvements from Lexus Lanes: The effects of pricing a portion of the lanes on congested highways," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 113-125.
    7. Xing, Jiping & Wu, Wei & Cheng, Qixiu & Liu, Ronghui, 2022. "Traffic state estimation of urban road networks by multi-source data fusion: Review and new insights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 595(C).
    8. Zheng, Zuduo & Ahn, Soyoung & Chen, Danjue & Laval, Jorge, 2011. "Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic: Bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 372-384, February.
    9. Anderson, Michael L. & Davis, Lucas W., 2020. "An empirical test of hypercongestion in highway bottlenecks," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Michael L. Anderson & Lucas W. Davis, 2018. "Two Empirical Tests of Hypercongestion," NBER Working Papers 24469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Cheung, Sing Yiu & Coleri, Sinem & Dundar, Baris & Ganesh, Sumitra & Tan, Chin-Woo & Varaiya, Pravin, 2004. "Traffic Measurement and Vehicle Classification with a Single Magnetic Sensor," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2gv111tv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    12. Banks, James H., 2006. "New Approach to Bottleneck Capacity Analysis: Final Report," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6hm1g7s6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    13. Liu, Wei & Yin, Yafeng & Yang, Hai, 2015. "Effectiveness of variable speed limits considering commuters’ long-term response," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 498-519.
    14. Varaiya, Pravin, 2004. "Assessment of MeMS Sensors in an Urban Traffic Environment," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt82p3t7gx, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    15. Chen Feng Ng & Elaine F. Frey, 2013. "The recession and truck traffic on the Long Beach Freeway in Los Angeles," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2518-2527.
    16. Han, Youngjun & Chen, Danjue & Ahn, Soyoung, 2017. "Variable speed limit control at fixed freeway bottlenecks using connected vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 113-134.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt35j7r3t5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.