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Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

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  • Collantes, Gustavo O

Abstract

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Collantes, Gustavo O, 2007. "Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9bm1w968, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9bm1w968
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2015. "Levelling the Playing Field: On the Missing Role of Network Externality in Designing Renewable Energy Technology Deployment Policies," Working Papers 2015.76, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Melaina, Marc W, 2007. "Turn of the century refueling: A review of innovations in early gasoline refueling methods and analogies for hydrogen," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8501255w, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    4. Tran, Martino, 2012. "Technology-behavioural modelling of energy innovation diffusion in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Huth, Christian & Kieckhäfer, Karsten & Spengler, Thomas Stefan, 2015. "Make-or-buy strategies for electric vehicle batteries—a simulation-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 22-34.
    7. Xu, Xinhai & Xu, Ben & Dong, Jun & Liu, Xiaotong, 2017. "Near-term analysis of a roll-out strategy to introduce fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen stations in Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 229-237.
    8. Farrell, Alexander & Sperling, Daniel, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5245b5kx, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    9. Zhang, Qiong & Chen, Jinyu & Ihara, Tomohiko, 2024. "Assessing regional variations in hydrogen fuel cell vehicle adoption: An integrative approach using real-world data and analytic hierarchy process in Tokyo," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    10. Collantes, Gustavo, 2008. "The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1059-1073, March.
    11. Melaina, Marc W., 2007. "Turn of the century refueling: A review of innovations in early gasoline refueling methods and analogies for hydrogen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4919-4934, October.
    12. Radpour, S. & Gemechu, E. & Ahiduzzaman, Md & Kumar, A., 2021. "Developing a framework to assess the long-term adoption of renewable energy technologies in the electric power sector: The effects of carbon price and economic incentives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Collantes, Gustavo Oscar, 2008. "The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt91f3d1ns, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Lee, Chul-Yong & Huh, Sung-Yoon, 2017. "Forecasting the diffusion of renewable electricity considering the impact of policy and oil prices: The case of South Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 29-39.
    16. Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    17. Farrell, Alexander E. & Sperling, Dan, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6j67z9w6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    18. Collantes, Gustavo, 2010. "Do green tech policies need to pass the consumer test?: The case of ethanol fuel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1235-1244, November.
    19. Farrell, Alexander E. & Sperling, Daniel & Arons, S.M. & Brandt, A.R. & Delucchi, M.A. & Eggert, A. & Farrell, A.E. & Haya, B.K. & Hughes, J. & Jenkins, B.M. & Jones, A.D. & Kammen, D.M. & Kaffka, S.R, 2007. "A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt8zm8d3wj, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    20. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    21. Xu, Jiuping & Li, Li & Zheng, Bobo, 2016. "Wind energy generation technological paradigm diffusion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 436-449.
    22. Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Pratama, Yoga Wienda & Nugroho, Yulianto Sulistyo & Warjito, & Hertono, Gatot Fatwanto & Hartono, Djoni & Deendarlianto, & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2015. "Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic, environment, and adequacy of energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 308-318.
    23. Collantes, Gustavo O, 2008. "The dimensions of the policy debate over transportation energy: The case of hydrogen in the United States," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt82j0z800, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    24. Pratama, Yoga Wienda & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Tezuka, Tetsuo & McLellan, Benjamin Craig & Hartono, Djoni & Hidayatno, Akhmad & Daud, Yunus, 2017. "Multi-objective optimization of a multiregional electricity system in an archipelagic state: The role of renewable energy in energy system sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 423-439.
    25. Cong, Rong-Gang, 2013. "An optimization model for renewable energy generation and its application in China: A perspective of maximum utilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 94-103.

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