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Energy Saving and Cost Projections for Advanced Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2015-2030

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  • Burke, Andrew
  • Zhao, Hengbing

Abstract

In this paper, the fuel savings, relative initial costs, and breakeven gasoline prices for mid-sized passenger cars utilizing advanced powertrains in 2015-2045 are compared to those using conventional and advanced engine/transmission power trains that would be available in the same time periods. The advanced powertrains considered are hybrid-electric (HEV and PHEV) and all-electric (EV) powered by batteries alone or by a hydrogen fuel cell. Large fuel savings compared to 2007 conventional passenger cars are projected by 2030 for all the advanced powertrains ranging from 45% with advanced engines in conventional vehicles to 60% in hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs). The energy savings (combined gasoline and wall-plug electricity) for the PHEVs were 62% for the PHEV-20 and 75% for the PHEV-40. The energy saving for the FCHEV was 72% and for the BEV was 79%. The cost analyzes of the various advanced powertrains compared to the 2007 baseline vehicle indicated the most cost-effective was the HEV with a breakeven gasoline price of $2.50-3.00/gal gasoline for a five year payback period, 4% discount rate, and 12,000 miles/year. This was even lower than that for the conventional vehicles using the same advanced, high efficiency engine. The economics of battery-powered, 100 mile range vehicles were analyzed for battery costs between $300- 700/kWh. The breakeven gasoline prices for the BEVs are higher than for the other advanced vehicles being $4-5/gal even for the $300/kWh batteries. The economic results for the FCHEVs indicate that target fuel cell costs of $30–50/kW, 10-year life, and hydrogen prices in the $2.50–$ 3.00/kgH2 range make fuel cell vehicles cost competitive with HEVs and ICE vehicles using advanced engines.

Suggested Citation

  • Burke, Andrew & Zhao, Hengbing, 2012. "Energy Saving and Cost Projections for Advanced Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2015-2030," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt80v1z6rd, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt80v1z6rd
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burke, Andrew & Miller, Marshall, 2009. "Performance Characteristics of Lithium-ion Batteries of Various Chemistries for Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3mc7g3vt, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Burke, Andrew & Zhao, Hengbing & Van Gelder, Eric, 2009. "Simulated Performance of Alternative Hybrid-Electric Powertrains in Vehicles on Various Driving Cycles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7nt461g1, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Zhao, Hengbing & Burke, Andy, 2009. "Optimum Performance of Direct Hydrogen Hybrid Fuel Cell Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5x31w1vd, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanfei Li & Robert Kochhan, 2017. "Policies And Business Models For The Electric Mobility Revolution: The Case Study On Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1195-1222, December.
    2. Han Hao & Michael Wang & Yan Zhou & Hewu Wang & Minggao Ouyang, 2015. "Levelized costs of conventional and battery electric vehicles in china: Beijing experiences," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1229-1246, October.

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