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Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05

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  • Jeffrey Schafer

Abstract

In forming its long-run projections of the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a 1 percentage-point increase in the projected ratio of debt to gross domestic product raises average long-run interest rates by 2 basis points (bps). The agency refers to that estimated relationship as the debt sensitivity of interest rates (DSIR). Here we extend the sample used in a previous CBO working paper to empirically estimate the DSIR and explore the relationship’s stability over time. Extending the sample through 2023 yields an

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Schafer, 2024. "Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05," Working Papers 60314, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:60314
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-12/60314-DSIR-WP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios," Reports 57327, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2015. "The impact of Treasury supply on financial sector lending and stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 571-600.
    3. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    4. Saroj Bhattarai & Gauti B Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov, 2023. "Time Consistency and Duration of Government Debt: A Model of Quantitative Easing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1759-1799.
    5. Jens H E Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2019. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 249-272.
    6. Jonathan Huntley, 2014. "The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02," Working Papers 45140, Congressional Budget Office.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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