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The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01

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  • Edward Gamber
  • John Seliski

Abstract

Under current law, the level of federal debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to rise significantly over the next decade. The relationship between debt and interest rates plays a key role in CBO's economic and budget projections (especially long-term projections) and for dynamic analyses of fiscal policy, where the sensitivity of interest rates with respect to changes in the level of debt is vitally important. In this analysis, we use a reduced-form regression to estimate the relationship between projected federal debt and expected long-term

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:55018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 87-112, January.
    2. Gale, William G., 2019. "Fiscal policy with high debt and low interest rates," MPRA Paper 99207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel Gros, 2020. "The Insurance Properties of Common Debt Issuance," EconPol Policy Reports 28, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Christopher J. Gust & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024. "Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Enock Mwakalila, 2020. "Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 123-135, May.
    6. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2019. "Modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework: An application to TCJA," MPRA Paper 93110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of a Wealth Tax in the United States: Exclusions, Evasion, and Expenditures," MPRA Paper 109120, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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