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Impact of Foreign Official Purchases of US Treasuries on the Yield Curve

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  • Erin L. Wolcott

Abstract

Foreign governments went from owning a tenth of publicly available US Treasury notes and bonds in 1985 to over half in 2008. Recently, foreign governments have reduced their positions. I find foreign official purchases have depressed medium-term yields, despite conventional wisdom pointing toward the long end of the yield curve. To examine effects over the entire yield curve, I embed a structural vector autoregression of macroeconomic variables into an affine term structure model. With segments of the yield curve increasingly determined by international financial markets, it may be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement its interest rate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Erin L. Wolcott, 2020. "Impact of Foreign Official Purchases of US Treasuries on the Yield Curve," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 535-540, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:535-40
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201124
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Ron Alquist & Karlye Dilts Stedman & R. Jay Kahn, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege," Research Working Paper RWP 22-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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