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Even Worse than You thought: The Impact of Public Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity

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  • Simone Salotti
  • Carmine Trecroci

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically assess the impact of government debt on two key determinants of long-term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity, on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009. Our main finding is that high public debts are followed by significant and linear declines of both aggregate investment spending and productivity growth. Our analysis also finds evidence supporting conditional convergence of productivity growth among OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even Worse than You thought: The Impact of Public Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_020, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c017_020
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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert, 2018. "Regulation, Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 415-449, April.
    2. Enrico Colombatto, 2012. "Fiscal Harmonization: Credible Goal or Trojan Horse?," Working papers 010, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    3. Juhana Hukkinen & Matti Viren, 2013. "Public debt is always toxic to economic growth," Discussion Papers 88, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    4. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck & Matthew Calver, 2015. "The Key Challenge for Canadian Public Policy: Generating Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth," CSLS Research Reports 2015-11, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. repec:tur:wpapnw:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Enrico Colombatto, 2015. "An alternative to the Laffer curve: Theory and consequences," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 75-92, March.
    8. Paula Puškárová & Miriama Vašková, 2022. "Dynamics of inequality and growth in Europe: may spatial models solve the puzzle?," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 33-48, January.
    9. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government debt; economic growth; investment; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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