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High renewable electricity penetration: marginal curtailment and market failure under "subsidy-free" entry

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  • Newbery, D.

Abstract

Ambitious plans to decarbonise electricity will require high levels of variable renewable electricity (VRE). At high VRE penetration, the surplus that cannot be exported must be curtailed (spilled). The last MW of wind capacity will be curtailed 3+ time more hours than the average, but even in efficiently designed markets, price signals for VRE investment are given by average, not marginal, curtailment, creating a "tragedy of the commons" that requires a corrective charge to restore efficiency. The paper sets out an analytical model calibrated to Ireland in 2026, showing the source of this distortion and estimates of its magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbery, D., 2023. "High renewable electricity penetration: marginal curtailment and market failure under "subsidy-free" entry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2353, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2353
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simshauser, Paul & Newbery, David, 2024. "Non-firm vs priority access: On the long run average and marginal costs of renewables in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Veenstra, Arjen T. & Mulder, Machiel, 2024. "Impact of Contracts for Differences for non-carbon electricity generation on efficiency of electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Simshauser, P. & Gohde, N., 2024. "3-Party Covenant Financing of 'Semi-Regulated' Pumped Hydro Assets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2425, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Davi-Arderius, Daniel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Measuring a Paradox: Zero-negative Electricity Prices," Working Papers 13-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Tourgeman, Miriam & Cohen, Chen & Rubin, Ofir, 2024. "Preserving competition and economic welfare in Israel's PV market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Simshauser, Paul, 2025. "Competition vs. coordination: Optimising wind, solar and batteries in renewable energy zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Hassanzadeh Moghimi, Farzad & Boomsma, Trine K. & Siddiqui, Afzal S., 2024. "Transmission planning in an imperfectly competitive power sector with environmental externalities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Qiao, Qiao & Zeng, Xianhai & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Mitigating wind curtailment risk in China: The impact of subsidy reduction policy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    renewable electricity; marginal wind curtailment; integration costs; market failures; inertia charges;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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