IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2349.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Incremental Impact of China's Carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Lu
  • Pollitt, M. G.
  • Wang, K.
  • Wei, Y-M.

Abstract

China has adopted the carbon emissions trading system (ETS) due to its advantages on efficiency and cost grounds. Prior to the national carbon market, China operated seven ETS pilots as experiments for eight years in addition to the existing Energy Conservation and Carbon Abatement Target Responsibility System (ECCA-TRS) in order to accumulate experience with carbon markets. However, the incremental effects of these pilots are unclear so far. Here, we show that the ETS pilots have produced no additional carbon abatement effect or abatement cost-saving effect, while ECCA-TRS contributed primarily to the relative decline in CO2 emissions and absolute decline in CO2 intensity of covered industries in pilot regions. A binding target is necessary to permit ETS to act as the backstop emissions constraint. Adjusting local governments' abatement achievement using the buy-in and sell-out of carbon allowances can allow the ECCA-TRS and ETS to act as well-integrated instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu & Pollitt, M. G. & Wang, K. & Wei, Y-M., 2023. "The Incremental Impact of China's Carbon," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2349, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2349
    Note: ml2112, mgp20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2349.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhu, Junming & Ruth, Matthias, 2015. "Relocation or reallocation: Impacts of differentiated energy saving regulation on manufacturing industries in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-133.
    2. Wang, Ke & Wei, Yi-Ming & Huang, Zhimin, 2016. "Potential gains from carbon emissions trading in China: A DEA based estimation on abatement cost savings," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-59.
    3. Färe, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna & Pasurka, Carl A., 2014. "Potential gains from trading bad outputs: The case of U.S. electric power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 99-112.
    4. Curtis Carlson & Dallas Burtraw & Maureen Cropper & Karen L. Palmer, 2000. "Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1292-1326, December.
    5. Carlos Dobkin & Amy Finkelstein & Raymond Kluender & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 308-352, February.
    6. Coria, Jessica & Hennlock, Magnus & Sterner, Thomas, 2021. "Interjurisdictional externalities, overlapping policies and NOx pollution control in Sweden," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Karen Fisher-Vanden & Yong Hu & Gary Jefferson & Michael Rock & Michael Toman, 2016. "Factors Influencing Energy Intensity in Four Chinese Industries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1_suppl), pages 153-178, January.
    8. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Li-An, 2008. "Political connections, financing and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 283-299, October.
    9. Severin Borenstein & Ryan Kellogg, 2023. "Carbon Pricing, Clean Electricity Standards, and Clean Electricity Subsidies on the Path to Zero Emissions," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 125-176.
    10. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Long, Xianling & Lu, Jieyi & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2022. "China's unconventional nationwide CO2 emissions trading system: Cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Simon Caney & Cameron Hepburn, 2011. "Carbon trading: unethical, unjust and ineffective?," GRI Working Papers 49, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    12. Boehringer Christoph & Fischer Carolyn & Rosendahl Knut Einar, 2010. "The Global Effects of Subglobal Climate Policies," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-35, December.
    13. Leard, Benjamin & McConnell, Virginia, 2021. "Interpreting tradable credit prices in overlapping vehicle regulations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Qiaoyi Chen & Zhao Chen & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Xu, 2021. "Regulating Conglomerates in China: Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program," NBER Working Papers 29066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak & Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, 2019. "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3953-3977, November.
    16. Cull, Robert & Li, Wei & Sun, Bo & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2015. "Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 271-294.
    17. Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
    18. Fu, Tong & Chang, Dongfeng & Miao, Chenglin, 2022. "Fuel regulation in a developing country: An interventional perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Jan Abrell & Anta Ndoye Faye & Georg Zachmann, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data," Working Papers of BETA 2011-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    20. Louis Kaplow, 2010. "Taxes, Permits, and Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 16268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Färe, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna & Pasurka,, Carl A., 2013. "Tradable permits and unrealized gains from trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 416-424.
    22. Zhang, Da & Karplus, Valerie J. & Cassisa, Cyril & Zhang, Xiliang, 2014. "Emissions trading in China: Progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-16.
    23. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2009. "Market-Based Policy Options to Control U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 5-27, Spring.
    24. Zhou, Nan & Levine, Mark D. & Price, Lynn, 2010. "Overview of current energy-efficiency policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6439-6452, November.
    25. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Ma, Rong & Teng, Fei, 2021. "When carbon emission trading meets a regulated industry: Evidence from the electricity sector of China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    26. E. Mark Curtis, 2018. "Who Loses under Cap-and-Trade Programs? The Labor Market Effects of the NOx Budget Trading Program," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 151-166, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mei Lu & Michael G. Pollitt & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2023. "The incremental impact of China’s carbon trading pilots," Working Papers EPRG2316, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Zhang, Weijie & Yu, Yanni & Liu, Qingjun, 2024. "Is single or synergistic environmental permit trading system more effective? A study based on Chinese industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Wang, Ke & Wei, Yi-Ming & Huang, Zhimin, 2016. "Potential gains from carbon emissions trading in China: A DEA based estimation on abatement cost savings," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 48-59.
    4. Yanni Yu & Weijie Zhang & Ning Zhang, 2018. "The Potential Gains from Carbon Emissions Trading in China’s Industrial Sectors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 1175-1194, December.
    5. Zhang, Weijie & Zhang, Ning & Yu, Yanni, 2019. "Carbon mitigation effects and potential cost savings from carbon emissions trading in China's regional industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Fu, Tong & Chang, Dongfeng & Miao, Chenglin, 2022. "Fuel regulation in a developing country: An interventional perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Wang, Yizhong & Hang, Ye & Wang, Qunwei, 2022. "Joint or separate? An economic-environmental comparison of energy-consuming and carbon emissions permits trading in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Zhang, Yanfang & Gao, Qi & Wei, Jinpeng & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhou, Dequn, 2023. "Can China's energy-consumption permit trading scheme achieve the “Porter” effect? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Problem of the Commons: Still Unsettled after 100 Years," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 81-108, February.
    10. Xian, Yujiao & Wang, Ke & Wei, Yi-Ming & Huang, Zhimin, 2019. "Would China’s power industry benefit from nationwide carbon emission permit trading? An optimization model-based ex post analysis on abatement cost savings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 978-986.
    11. Zhang, Yanfang & Guo, Siyuan & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Nie, Rui, 2021. "A market instrument to achieve carbon neutrality: Is China’s energy-consumption permit trading scheme effective?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    12. Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke & Jain, Rakesh Kumar, 2020. "CO2 mitigation policy for Indian thermal power sector: Potential gains from emission trading," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Liu, Li & Sheng, Jichuan, 2024. "Energy quota trading and energy vulnerability: China's energy quota trading pilot," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Fu, Tong & Jian, Ze, 2020. "A developmental state: How to allocate electricity efficiently in a developing country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Su, Zhong-qin & Xiao, Zuoping & Yu, Lin, 2019. "Do political connections enhance or impede corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 94-110.
    16. Vladimir Sokolov & Laura Solanko, 2017. "Political Influence, Firm Performance and Survival," HSE Working papers WP BRP 60/FE/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. Chen, Zhenling & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Zhang, Xiaoling & Cao, Yunfei, 2020. "How will the Chinese national carbon emissions trading scheme work? The assessment of regional potential gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Kao, Chiang & Hwang, Shiuh-Nan, 2023. "Separating the effect of undesirable outputs generation from the inefficiency of desirable outputs production in efficiency measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(3), pages 1097-1102.
    19. Färe, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna & Pasurka, Carl A., 2014. "Potential gains from trading bad outputs: The case of U.S. electric power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 99-112.
    20. Tang, Le & Jefferson, Gary, 2024. "A DSGE model of energy efficiency with vintage capital in Chinese industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme; Target responsibility system; Policy evaluation; Triple difference-in-differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.