IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/1113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage programming to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • van der Weijde, A.H.
  • Hobbs, B.F.

Abstract

We develop a stochastic two-stage optimisation model that captures the multistage nature of electricity transmission planning under uncertainty and apply it to a stylised representation of the Great Britain (GB) network. In our model, a proactive transmission planner makes investment decisions in two time periods, each time followed by a market response. This model allows us to identify robust first-stage investments and estimate the value of information in transmission planning, the costs of ignoring uncertainty, and the value of flexibility. Our results show that ignoring risk has quantifiable economic consequences, and that considering uncertainty explicitly can yield decisions that have lower expected costs than traditional deterministic planning methods. Furthermore, the best plan under a risk-neutral criterion can differ from the best under risk-aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Weijde, A.H. & Hobbs, B.F., 2011. "Planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage programming to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/CWPE1113.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 358-387, November.
    2. Sinden, Graham, 2007. "Characteristics of the UK wind resource: Long-term patterns and relationship to electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 112-127, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Farrell, Niall & Devine, Mel T. & Soroudi, Alireza, 2018. "An auction framework to integrate dynamic transmission expansion planning and pay-as-bid wind connection auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2462-2477.
    2. De Jonghe, C. & Hobbs, B. F. & Belmans, R., 2011. "Integrating short-term demand response into long-term investment planning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1132, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Andreas Schröder & Maximilian Bracke, 2012. "Integrated Electricity Generation Expansion and Transmission Capacity Planning: An Application to the Central European Region," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1250, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Marcelino Madrigal & Steven Stoft, 2012. "Transmission Expansion for Renewable Energy Scale-Up : Emerging Lessons and Recommendations," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9375.
    5. van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The economics of planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage optimisation to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2089-2101.
    6. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    7. Frew, Bethany A. & Becker, Sarah & Dvorak, Michael J. & Andresen, Gorm B. & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2016. "Flexibility mechanisms and pathways to a highly renewable US electricity future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 65-78.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simshauser, Paul, 2024. "On static vs. dynamic line ratings in renewable energy zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Faezeh Akhavizadegan & Lizhi Wang & James McCalley, 2020. "Scenario Selection for Iterative Stochastic Transmission Expansion Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Camelo, Sergio & Papavasiliou, Anthony & de Castro, Luciano & Riascos, Álvaro & Oren, Shmuel, 2018. "A structural model to evaluate the transition from self-commitment to centralized unit commitment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 560-572.
    4. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "The impact of expansion of wind power capacity and pricing methods on the efficiency of deregulated electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 676-688.
    5. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    6. Ochoa, Camila & van Ackere, Ann, 2015. "Winners and losers of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 522-534.
    7. Paul Simshauser & Farhad Billimoria & Craig Rogers, 2021. "Optimising VRE plant capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Working Papers EPRG2121, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Elliston, Ben & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain, 2016. "What cost for more renewables? The incremental cost of renewable generation – An Australian National Electricity Market case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 127-139.
    9. Ritter, Matthias & Shen, Zhiwei & López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Deckert, Lars, 2015. "Designing an index for assessing wind energy potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 416-424.
    10. Boccard, Nicolas, 2010. "Economic properties of wind power: A European assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3232-3244, July.
    11. Mirlatifi, A.M. & Egelioglu, F. & Atikol, U., 2015. "An econometric model for annual peak demand for small utilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 35-44.
    12. Michael Jefferson, 2013. "A renewable energy future?," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 10, pages 254-269, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Egerer, Jonas & Grimm, Veronika & Grübel, Julia & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Long-run market equilibria in coupled energy sectors: A study of uniqueness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1335-1354.
    14. Valentin Bertsch & Wolf Fichtner, 2016. "A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation and transmission planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 245(1), pages 177-207, October.
    15. Kang, Jidong & Wu, Zhuochun & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin, 2023. "A stochastic-robust optimization model for inter-regional power system planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1234-1248.
    16. Ambrosius, M. & Egerer, J. & Grimm, V. & Weijde, A.H. van der, 2020. "Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 343-359.
    17. Katinas, Vladislovas & Sankauskas, Donatas & Markevičius, Antanas & Perednis, Eugenijus, 2014. "Investigation of the wind energy characteristics and power generation in Lithuania," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 299-304.
    18. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    19. Caballero, F. & Sauma, E. & Yanine, F., 2013. "Business optimal design of a grid-connected hybrid PV (photovoltaic)-wind energy system without energy storage for an Easter Island's block," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-261.
    20. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making; electricity; transmission; planning; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.