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Cameron's Information Disaster in the Referendum of 2016: An Exit from Brexit?

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  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract

The UK's BREXIT-referendum on June 23rd, 2016, resulted in 51.9% of voters opting for the UK to leave the EU. This result, however, was a direct consequence of the situation that in the official 16-page information leaflet, which was delivered to all households prior to the vote, the Cameron government did not include any information on the economic effects of BREXIT, although a study by HM Treasury had given rise to internal data on these effects by early April: -10% in long-term real income. On the basis of a popularity function, one can calculate that in the case of this information being widely known to the public, the result could have rather been 52% in favour of Remain. From this perspective, the referendum itself loses legitimacy and the call for a second referendum becomes irrefutable.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J.J. Welfens, 2016. "Cameron's Information Disaster in the Referendum of 2016: An Exit from Brexit?," EIIW Discussion paper disbei219, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 243-253, June.
    2. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "Innovations in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-11909-5, June.
    3. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    4. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2016. "Beyond EU-US Trade Dynamics: TTIP Effects Related to Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation," EIIW Discussion paper disbei212, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Anke C. Plagnol & Paul Frijters & Andrew E. Clark, 2019. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? The Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(343), pages 471-494, July.
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens & David Hanrahan, 2017. "The Brexit Dynamics: British and EU27 Challenges After the EU Referendum," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 52(5), pages 302-307, September.
    3. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Plagnol, Anke C. & Frijters, Paul & Clark, Andrew E., 2017. "Who Got the Brexit Blues? Using a Quasi-Experiment to Show the Effect of Brexit on Subjective Wellbeing in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 11206, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; United Kingdom; European integration; Free trade area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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