IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izapps/pp78.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Sectoral and Macroeconomic Perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US

Author

Listed:
  • Irawan, Tony

    (University of Wuppertal)

  • Welfens, Paul J. J.

    (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

The EU and the US have started negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) which could bring a considerable increase of exports and output as well as changes in the composition of output and employment. Thus export simulation studies in combination with input output analysis and employment analysis is useful. In the analysis presented the focus is mainly on sectoral output and employment effects where the key sectors are the automotive sector, chemical industry, information and communication technology production, pharmaceuticals and machinery and equipment. Backward sector links are analyzed and found to be quite important in the automotive sector, the chemical industry, the machinery and equipment sector in both Germany and the US; in Germany also in ICT production. However, most of the observed sectors have weak forward linkage. Input output analysis is also used to identify employment effects in various sectors: the pure employment effect of a 20% export expansion in Germany amounts to about 800 000 new jobs. Looking only at the US and German perspective turns out to be misleading – the high imports of intermediate inputs of German firms from EU partner countries suggests that a comparison EU-US is analytically required for some key issues and that considering the effects on EU partners is also useful. There is a host of key policy issues, including the issue of extended sustainability reporting.

Suggested Citation

  • Irawan, Tony & Welfens, Paul J. J., 2014. "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Sectoral and Macroeconomic Perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US," IZA Policy Papers 78, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izapps:pp78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/pp78.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haberli, Christian. & Jansen, Marion. & Monteiro, José-Antonio., 2012. "Regional trade agreements and domestic labour market regulation," ILO Working Papers 994700163402676, International Labour Organization.
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    3. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    4. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," Economics working papers 2015-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro & Matthias Lücke, 2014. "Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis off Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 7, pages 125-151, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova & Csilla Lakatos, 2014. "Assessing the economic impacts of the EU-Singapore FTA with a dynamic general equilibrium model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 277-291, September.
    7. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "The Growth of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 160, pages 63-75, April.
    8. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    9. Paul Welfens & Jens Perret, 2014. "Information & communication technology and true real GDP: economic analysis and findings for selected countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-27, February.
    10. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "Innovations in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-11909-5, April.
    11. repec:ilo:ilowps:470016 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Finn Krüger & Lisandra Flach & Erdal Yalcin & Sebastian Benz, 2013. "Dimensionen und Auswirkungen eines Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und den USA," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62, July.
    13. Andre Jungmittag & Paul Welfens, 2009. "Liberalization of EU telecommunications and trade: theory, gravity equation analysis and policy implications," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 23-39, June.
    14. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November.
    15. Scott Bradford & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2004. "Has Globalization Gone Far Enough: The Costs of Fragmented Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 349, April.
    16. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2013. "Social Security and Economic Globalization," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-40880-9, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Welfens, Paul J. J. & Irawan, Tony, 2014. "European Innovation Dynamics and US Economic Impact: Theory and Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 8507, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2016. "Overcoming the euro crisis and prospects for a political union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 59-103, January.
    3. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Corona World Recession and Health System Crisis: Shocks Not Understood So Far," EIIW Discussion paper disbei273, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    4. Paul Welfens, 2015. "Innovation, inequality and a golden rule for growth in an economy with Cobb-Douglas function and an R&D sector," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 469-496, October.
    5. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    6. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2015. "Transatlantisches Freihandelsabkommen EU-USA: Befunde zu den TTIP-Vorteilen und Anmerkungen zur TTIP-Debatte," EIIW Discussion paper disbei209, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    7. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Welfens, 2014. "Issues of modern macroeconomics: new post-crisis perspectives on the world economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 481-527, December.
    2. Welfens, Paul J. J. & Irawan, Tony, 2014. "European Innovation Dynamics and US Economic Impact: Theory and Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 8507, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Paul J. J. Welfens & Fabian J. Baier, 2018. "BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Welfens, Paul J. J., 2016. "Integrated Macroeconomic Production Function for Open Economies: A New Schumpeterian Solow Model for Globalization," IZA Discussion Papers 9724, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group.
    6. Paul Welfens, 2016. "Overcoming the euro crisis and prospects for a political union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 59-103, January.
    7. Marian Beise & Heike Belitz, 1998. "Trends in the Internationalisation of R&D - the German Perspective," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(2), pages 67-85.
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Mario Larch, 2014. "Transatlantic Free Trade: Questions and Answers from the Vantage Point of Trade Theory," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 03-17, January.
    9. Steven Globerman & Daniel Shapiro, 2003. "Governance infrastructure and US foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 34(1), pages 19-39, January.
    10. Oliver Krebs & Michael Pflüger, 2018. "How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 171-222, February.
    11. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & López-Pueyo, Carmen, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment in a Process of Economic Integration: The Case of Spanish Manufacturing, 1986-1992," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 85-103.
    12. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    13. Vishaal Baulkaran & Nathaniel C. Lupton, 2020. "U.S. FDI and Shareholder Rights Protection in Developed and Developing Economies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 24(3-4), pages 155-182, September.
    14. Disdier, Anne‐Célia & Emlinger, Charlotte & Fouré, Jean, 2016. "Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    15. Eddy Bekkers & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2018. "Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments," RSCAS Working Papers 2018/40, European University Institute.
    16. Fabian J. Baier & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The UK’s banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 193-213, March.
    17. Krebs, Oliver & Pflüger, Michael P., 2015. "How Deep Is Your Love? A Quantitative Spatial Analysis of the Transatlantic Trade Partnership," IZA Discussion Papers 9021, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Taylor, Karl & Driffield, Nigel, 2005. "Wage inequality and the role of multinationals: evidence from UK panel data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 223-249, April.
    19. Oana Cristina Popovici & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2014. "FDI theories. A location-based approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 3-24, September.
    20. Griffith, Rachel & Redding, Stephen & Simpson, Helen, 2002. "Productivity Convergence and Foreign Ownership at the Establishment Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 3765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; trade; foreign direct investment; labor; input output analysis; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izapps:pp78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.