IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bos/iedwpr/dp-347.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth, Automation, and the Long-Run Share of Labor

Author

Listed:
  • Debraj Ray

    (New York University)

  • Dilip Mookherjee

    (Boston University)

Abstract

We study a model of long run growth and distribution with two key features. First, there is an asymmetry between physical and human capital. Individual claims on the former can be reproduced linearly and indefinitely. Because no similar claim on humans is possible, human capital accumulation instead takes the form of acquiring occupational skills, the returns to which are determined by an endogenous collection of wages. Second, physical capital can take the form of machines that are complementary to human labor, or robots, a substitute for it. Under a self-replication condition on the production of robot services, our theory delivers progressive automation, with the share of labor in national income converging to zero. The displacement of human labor is gradual, and real wages could rise indefinitely. The results extend to endogenous technical change, as well as relaxations of the sharply posited human-physical asymmetry.

Suggested Citation

  • Debraj Ray & Dilip Mookherjee, 2020. "Growth, Automation, and the Long-Run Share of Labor," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-347, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bu.edu/econ/files/2020/07/20UltraLong10Ectrica.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    3. H. Uzawa, 1971. "On a Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 3, pages 19-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Mark Schankerman & John Van Reenen, 2013. "Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1347-1393, July.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Endogenous Education and Long-Run Factor Shares," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
    6. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2002. "Is Equality Stable?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 253-259, May.
    7. José Azar & Xavier Vives, 2018. "Oligopoly, Macroeconomic Performance, and Competition Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7189, CESifo.
    8. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    10. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F. Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 180-185, May.
    11. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
    12. Diego Comin & Ana Danieli & Martí Mestieri, 2020. "Income-Driven Labor-Market Polarization," Working Paper Series WP-2020-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Robert S. Chirinko & Debdulal Mallick, 2014. "The Substitution Elasticity, Factor Shares, Long-Run Growth, and the Low-Frequency Panel Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 4895, CESifo.
    14. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2015. "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," NBER Working Papers 20941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2010. "Inequality and Markets: Some Implications of Occupational Diversity," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 38-76, November.
    16. Grossman, Sanford J & Hart, Oliver D, 1979. "A Theory of Competitive Equilibrium in Stock Market Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 293-329, March.
    17. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number agra-1.
    18. Debraj Ray, 2015. "Nit-Piketty: A Comment on Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty First Century," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 19-25, May.
    19. Joachim Hubmer, 2019. "The Race Between Preferences and Technology," 2019 Meeting Papers 1430, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Bernstein, Jeffrey I. & Nadiri, M. Ishaq, 1988. "Interindustry R&D, Rates of Return and Production in High-Tech Industries," Working Papers 88-04, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    21. Bernstein, Jeffrey I & Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1988. "Interindustry R&D Spillovers, Rates of Return, and Production in High-Tech Industries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 429-434, May.
    22. Greg Kaplan & Piotr Zoch, 2020. "Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work," NBER Working Papers 26800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
    24. Ljungqvist, Lars, 1993. "Economic underdevelopment : The case of a missing market for human capital," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 219-239, April.
    25. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-298, April.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2015. "The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    27. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2015. "Yes, r > g. So What?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 43-47, May.
    28. Makowski, Louis, 1980. "Perfect competition, the profit criterion, and the organization of economic activity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 222-242, April.
    29. Agrawal, Ajay & Gans, Joshua & Goldfarb, Avi (ed.), 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226613338, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Dreger, Christian & Fourné, Marius & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2023. "Globalization, productivity growth, and labor compensation," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2023.
    3. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Mechanization, task assignment, and inequality," MPRA Paper 37754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wang, Linhui & Cao, Zhanglu & Dong, Zhiqing, 2023. "Are artificial intelligence dividends evenly distributed between profits and wages? Evidence from the private enterprise survey data in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 342-356.
    5. Hideki Nakamura & Joseph Zeira, 2024. "Automation and unemployment: help is on the way," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 215-250, June.
    6. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    7. Leone Julián & Cascio Jorge Lo, 2020. "Income gaps: Education and inequality," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(4), pages 27-50, December.
    8. Yang, Jia & Pei, Yu & Qiang, Wei, 2024. "The impact of automation on human capital investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    9. Cao, Sean & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Junbo & Yang, Baozhong, 2024. "From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The art and AI of stock analyses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Antonio Cutanda, 2022. "The elasticity of substitution and labor-saving innovations in the Spanish regions," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 49(2 Year 20), pages 123-144, December.
    11. Shohei Momoda & Takayuki Ogawa & Ryosuke Shimizu, 2024. "Automation and Growth Patterns in an Open Economy," KIER Working Papers 1109, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Corneo, Giacomo, 2020. "Progressive Sovereign Wealth Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2022. "Growth, Automation and the Long-Run Share of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 1-26, October.
    2. Yingying Lu & Yixiao Zhou, 2021. "A review on the economics of artificial intelligence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1045-1072, September.
    3. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    5. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2024. "Frictions and the diffusion of automation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(2), pages 148-170, March.
    6. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Jakub Growiec, 2019. "The Hardware-Software Model: A New Conceptual Framework of Production, R&D, and Growth with AI," KAE Working Papers 2019-042, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    8. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Mechanization, task assignment, and inequality," MPRA Paper 37754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mookherjee, Dilip & Napel, Stefan, 2021. "Welfare rationales for conditionality of cash transfers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Chen, Chuanglian & Wang, Shudan & Yao, Shujie & Lin, Yuting, 2023. "Does digital transformation increase the labor income share? From a perspective of resources reallocation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Modelling artificial intelligence in economics," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-12.
    12. Marcello D'Amato & Christian Di Pietro, 2011. "Occupational Mobility and Wealth Evolution in a Simple Model of Educational Investment with Credit Market Imperfections," CSEF Working Papers 300, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Rada, Codrina & Tavani, Daniele & von Arnim, Rudiger & Zamparelli, Luca, 2023. "Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 442-461.
    14. Damioli, G. & Van Roy, V. & Vertesy, D. & Vivarelli, M., 2021. "May AI revolution be labour-friendly? Some micro evidence from the supply side," GLO Discussion Paper Series 823, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2003. "Persistent Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 369-393.
    16. Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Mookherjee, Dilip & Napel, Stefan, 2007. "Intergenerational mobility and macroeconomic history dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 49-78, November.
    18. Joanna Alexopoulos & Tiago V. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Cheap home goods and persistent inequality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(3), pages 417-451, December.
    19. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Ugur, Mehmet, 2024. "Innovation, market power and the labour share: Evidence from OECD industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Program Coordinator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decbuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.