IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v92y2024i2p148-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Frictions and the diffusion of automation

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Charalampidis

Abstract

This paper studies the implications of business cycle frictions for the diffusion of permanent changes in automation. Incorporating task‐based production in different versions of the New Keynesian model reveals considerable short‐run implications. Price‐distorting nominal rigidities amplify the labor displacement and attenuate the productivity and welfare gains of automation during the transition to the new equilibrium. They exacerbate the falls in the labor income share, the job finding probability, the value of long‐term contracts, and labor market tightness. The inflation response follows a J‐curve. Frictions in capital supply and wage rigidities amplify the labor displacement and attenuate the productivity gains too.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2024. "Frictions and the diffusion of automation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(2), pages 148-170, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:92:y:2024:i:2:p:148-170
    DOI: 10.1111/manc.12461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12461
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/manc.12461?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
    2. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in an estimated model with labor market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 983-1006, July.
    3. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 293-340.
    5. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
    6. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    7. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number agra-1, June.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    9. Albanesi, Stefania & Da Silva, António Dias & Jimeno, Juan F. & Lamo, Ana & Wabitsch, Alena, 2023. "New technologies and jobs in Europe," Working Paper Series 2831, European Central Bank.
    10. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    11. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "Productivity Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 563-606.
    13. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Gentile, Elisabetta & Miroudot, Sébastien & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2020. "The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    15. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    16. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    18. Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "A Note On The Implications Of Automation For Economic Growth And The Labor Share," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1294-1301, April.
    19. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2023. "Generative AI at Work," Papers 2304.11771, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    20. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    22. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2015. "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," NBER Working Papers 20941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2015. "CES technology and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 133-151.
    24. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2017. "Revisiting the risk of automation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 157-160.
    25. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    27. Berg, Andrew & Buffie, Edward F. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 117-148.
    28. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    29. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    30. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    31. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2015. "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," NBER Working Papers 20941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
    33. Mai Dao & Ms. Mitali Das & Zsoka Koczan & Weicheng Lian, 2017. "Why Is Labor Receiving a Smaller Share of Global Income? Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2017/169, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Tsu-ting Tim Lin & Charles L. Weise, 2019. "A New Keynesian Model with Robots: Implications for Business Cycles and Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 81-101, March.
    35. Efraim Benmelech & Michal Zator, 2022. "Robots and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 29676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Di Pace, Federico & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Factor complementarity and labour market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-112.
    37. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    38. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2017. "What Explains the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income? An Analysis of State and Industry Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2017/167, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    3. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    4. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    5. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168215, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hideki Nakamura & Joseph Zeira, 2024. "Automation and unemployment: help is on the way," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 215-250, June.
    8. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Oscar Afonso & Rosa Forte, 2023. "How powerful are fiscal and monetary policies in a directed technical change model with humans and robots?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3008-3032, July.
    10. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    11. Hang, Leiming & Lu, Wei & Ge, Xiaowei & Ye, Bin & Zhao, Zhiqi & Cheng, Fangfang, 2024. "R&D innovation, industrial evolution and the labor skill structure in China manufacturing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    12. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    13. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Mechanization, task assignment, and inequality," MPRA Paper 37754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    15. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2022. "Growth, Automation and the Long-Run Share of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 1-26, October.
    16. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    18. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 669-701, July.
    19. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    20. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:92:y:2024:i:2:p:148-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.