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Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence From Germany’s Post-war Population Expulsions: A Comment

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  • Antonio Ciccone
  • Jan Nimczik

Abstract

The scale effects that have become an integral part of growth theory imply that productivity should be increasing in population size. We use newly digitized data to estimate the relation between GDP per worker and refugee settlements in West Germany following the arrival of 8 million WWII refugees—more than 15% of the West German population in 1949. Our approach builds on the county-level analysis of the relation between GDP per capita growth and refugee settlements in Peters (2022). As we find that his estimates do not reflect the effect on GDP per capita, we also provide corrected per-capita estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Ciccone & Jan Nimczik, 2024. "Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence From Germany’s Post-war Population Expulsions: A Comment," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_579, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    2. Abel Schumann, 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 189-205, July.
    3. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2014. "Immigration and structural change: Evidence from post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 253-269.
    4. Michael Peters, 2022. "Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence From Germany's Post‐War Population Expulsions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2357-2396, September.
    5. Ufuk Akcigit, 2017. "Economic Growth: The Past, the Present, and the Future," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1736-1747.
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Gu, Jiaying & Shen, Shu, 2024. "Instrumental variable estimation with first-stage heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    7. Christine Blandhol & John Bonney & Magne Mogstad & Alexander Torgovitsky, 2022. "When is TSLS Actually LATE?," NBER Working Papers 29709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; scale effects; productivity; population shocks; immigration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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