IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/12-e-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Ichiro Muto

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this study, we theoretically investigate the potential role of the reference rate in stabilizing or destabilizing an interbank market with an environment where individual banks cannot fully identify the nature of underlying shocks affecting their interbank transactions. We show that a noise-free reference rate based on a sufficient number of sample transactions can help to make the market interest rate less volatile, whereas the stabilizing effects of the reference rate are significantly reduced if the reported interest rates contain some noisy components. Nevertheless, by increasing the number of sample transactions reflected in the reference rate, the adverse effects of the noise can be mitigated (or eliminated) provided the noise is idiosyncratic to individual transactions. However, if the noise is common to multiple transactions, then the adverse effects of the noisy reference rate cannot be reduced simply by increasing the number of sample transactions. This suggests that the noise in the interest rates reported by just a few of large banks can end up making the entire market more volatile, thereby impairing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Muto, 2012. "A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:12-e-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2012/data/wp12e10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shun Kobayashi, 2012. "Application of a Search Model to Appropriate Designing of Reference Rates: Actual Transactions and Expert Judgment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    2. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Understanding liquidity and credit risks in the financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 903-914.
    3. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    4. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    5. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    6. Duffie, Darrell & Dworczak, Piotr, 2021. "Robust benchmark design," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 775-802.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    8. John O’Neill, 2009. "Market," Chapters, in: Jan Peil & Irene van Staveren (ed.), Handbook of Economics and Ethics, chapter 42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Muto, Ichiro, 2013. "Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
    10. Heider, F. & Hoerova, M. & Holthausen, C., 2009. "Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads : The Role of Counterparty Risk," Discussion Paper 2009-40 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Xavier Freixas & Antoine Martin & David Skeie, 2011. "Bank Liquidity, Interbank Markets, and Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2656-2692.
    12. Ichiro Muto & Nao Sudo & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2023. "Productivity Slowdown in Japan's Lost Decades: How Much of It Can Be Attributed to Damaged Balance Sheets?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 159-207, February.
    13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    14. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Gale, Douglas, 2009. "Interbank market liquidity and central bank intervention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 639-652, July.
    15. Jacob Gyntelberg & Philip Wooldridge, 2008. "Interbank rate fixings during the recent turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    17. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 21-44, Fall.
    18. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(May), pages 3-22.
    19. Nao Sudou, 2012. "Financial Markets, Monetary Policy and Reference Rates: Assessments in DSGE Framework," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    20. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Kraten, Michael & Metz, Albert D. & Seow, Gim S., 2012. "Libor manipulation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-150.
    21. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Manipulation in Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 113-148, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shun Kobayashi, 2012. "Application of a Search Model to Appropriate Designing of Reference Rates: Actual Transactions and Expert Judgment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    2. Nao Sudou, 2012. "Financial Markets, Monetary Policy and Reference Rates: Assessments in DSGE Framework," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    3. Hiroshi Kawata & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Koji Nakamura & Yuki Teranishi & Saiki Tsuchiya, 2012. "Effects of the Loss and Correction of a Reference Rate on Japan's Economy and Financial System: Analysis Using the Financial Macro-econometric Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    4. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2015. "Fundamentals matter: Idiosyncratic shocks and interbank relations," Discussion Papers 44/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    3. Affinito, Massimiliano, 2012. "Do interbank customer relationships exist? And how did they function in the crisis? Learning from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3163-3184.
    4. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.
    5. Karolina Puławska, 2022. "Effects of the bank levy introduction on the interbank market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 844-864, January.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Skeie, David, 2011. "A model of liquidity hoarding and term premia in inter-bank markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 436-447.
    7. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Yoldas, Emre & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2018. "Financial stress and equilibrium dynamics in term interbank funding markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-149.
    9. Geršl, Adam & Lešanovská, Jitka, 2014. "Explaining the Czech interbank market risk premium," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 536-551.
    10. Maria Näther, 2019. "The effect of the central bank’s standing facilities on interbank lending and bank liquidity holding," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 537-577, October.
    11. Ritz, Robert A. & Walther, Ansgar, 2015. "How do banks respond to increased funding uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-410.
    12. Alexander Bechtel & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2023. "Liquidity Risk and Funding Cost," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-422.
    13. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2012. "Market-specific and currency-specific risk during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the interbank markets in Tokyo and London," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3185-3196.
    14. De Socio, Antonio, 2013. "The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1340-1358.
    15. Brossard, Olivier & Saroyan, Susanna, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-185.
    16. McAndrews, James & Sarkar, Asani & Wang, Zhenyu, 2017. "The effect of the term auction facility on the London interbank offered rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-152.
    17. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    18. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    19. León, Carlos & Machado, Clara & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2018. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 75-92.
    20. Beck, Thorsten & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay, 2016. "Financial Regulation in Europe: Foundations and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 11147, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interbank Market; Reference Rate; LIBOR; Imperfect Information; Financial Stability; Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:12-e-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.