IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boi/wpaper/2019.04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Long-Run Growth Model for Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Eyal Argov

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Shay Tsur

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

This paper describes the project of developing a long-term growth model to be used by the staff of the Bank of Israel. The purpose of the model is to forecast GDP growth over a horizon of approximately 50 years given various assumptions, and to evaluate how different exogenous developments, or policy steps, are expected to affect the long-run growth rate. The model is composed of five distinct blocks, each focused on a different factor of production or productivity. The blocks draw on different modeling approaches along the trade off between theoretical, detailed and empirical advantages. The baseline forecast indicates that the future growth rate of GDP and GDP per capita are expected to be lower than historical averages, mainly due to future demographic developments and the exhaustion of significant growth drivers that operated in the past.​

Suggested Citation

  • Eyal Argov & Shay Tsur, 2019. "A Long-Run Growth Model for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.04, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2019.04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://boiwebrepec.azurefd.net/RePEc/boi/wpaper/WP_2019.04.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    2. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    3. Balázs Égert & Peter Gal, 2017. "The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: A new framework," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 91-108.
    4. Shareen Joshi & T. Paul Schultz, 2007. "Family Planning as an Investment in Development: Evaluation of a Program's Consequences in Matlab, Bangladesh," Working Papers 951, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    5. Elwin Tobing, 2012. "Demography and cross-country differences in savings rates: a new approach and evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 963-987, July.
    6. Altinok,Nadir & Angrist,Noam & Patrinos,Harry Anthony, 2018. "Global data set on education quality (1965-2015)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8314, The World Bank.
    7. Shay Tsur & Eyal Argov, 2019. "Conditional Convergence and Future TFP Growth in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.05, Bank of Israel.
    8. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    9. Thomas, Vinod & Wang, Yan & Fan, Xibo, 2001. "Measuring education inequality - Gini coefficients of education," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2525, The World Bank.
    10. Angrist, Noam & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Schlotter, Martin, 2013. "An expansion of a global data set on educational quality : a focus on achievement in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6536, The World Bank.
    11. Amparo Castello & Rafael Domenech, 2002. "Human Capital Inequality and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 187-200, March.
    12. Thomas Ziesemer, 2016. "Gini Coefficients of Education for 146 Countries, 1950-2010," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 1-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shraberman, Kyrill & Weinreb, Alexander A., 2024. "The fiscal consequences of changing demographic composition: Aging and differential growth across Israel’s three major subpopulations," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Shay Tsur & Eyal Argov, 2019. "Conditional Convergence and Future TFP Growth in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.05, Bank of Israel.
    3. Tanya Suhoy & Maayan Tropper-Wachtel, 2021. "Global Warming Effects on Electricity Demand in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.17, Bank of Israel.
    4. Thomas Ziesemer, 2022. "Global Dynamics of Gini Coefficients of Education for 146 Countries: Update to 1950-2015 and a Compact Guide to the Literature," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 85-95.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shay Tsur & Eyal Argov, 2019. "Conditional Convergence and Future TFP Growth in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.05, Bank of Israel.
    2. Yulin Hou & Cem Karayalcin, 2019. "Exports of primary goods and human capital accumulation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1371-1408, November.
    3. Balcazar, Carlos Felipe & Narayan, Ambar & Tiwari, Sailesh, 2015. "Born with a silver spoon : inequality in educational achievement across the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7152, The World Bank.
    4. Campbell, Susanna G. & Üngör, Murat, 2020. "Revisiting human capital and aggregate income differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-64.
    5. Eyal Argov & Shay Tsur, 2024. "Conditional Convergence And Future Tfp Growth In Israel," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 22(1), pages 109-155, September.
    6. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    7. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    8. Jungho Kim, 2023. "Female education and its impact on fertility," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 228-228, May.
    9. Alali, Walid Y., 2011. "Inequality in Education and Income Across Countries," EconStor Preprints 269880, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Grohmann, Antonia & Klühs, Theres & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2018. "Does financial literacy improve financial inclusion? Cross country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 84-96.
    11. Olivera, Javier & Andreoli, Francesco & Leist, Anja K. & Chauvel, Louis, 2018. "Inequality in old age cognition across the world," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 179-188.
    12. Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2017. "Do Democracies Provide Better Education? Revisiting the Democracy–Human Capital Link," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 186-199.
    13. Park, Jungsoo, 2006. "Dispersion of human capital and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 520-539, September.
    14. Dao, Thu Hien & Docquier, Frédéric & Parsons, Chris & Peri, Giovanni, 2018. "Migration and development: Dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 88-101.
    15. Petra Sauer & Martin Zagler, 2014. "(In)equality in Education and Economic Development," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 353-379, November.
    16. Thomas Ziesemer, 2016. "Gini Coefficients of Education for 146 Countries, 1950-2010," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 1-8.
    17. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 401-432, April.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1ds77lna5j86jagcp29tfni72o is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1ds77lna5j86jagcp29tfni72o is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gianluigi Pelloni & Marco Savioli, 2015. "Why Is Italy Doing So Badly?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 349-365, October.
    21. Eyal Argov, 2018. "The Development Of Education In Israel And Its Contribution To Long-Term Growth," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 16(1), pages 1-40.
    22. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2019.04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yossi Yakhin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boigvil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.