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A Long-Run Growth Model for Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Eyal Argov

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Shay Tsur

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

This paper describes the project of developing a long-term growth model to be used by the staff of the Bank of Israel. The purpose of the model is to forecast GDP growth over a horizon of approximately 50 years given various assumptions, and to evaluate how different exogenous developments, or policy steps, are expected to affect the long-run growth rate. The model is composed of five distinct blocks, each focused on a different factor of production or productivity. The blocks draw on different modeling approaches along the trade off between theoretical, detailed and empirical advantages. The baseline forecast indicates that the future growth rate of GDP and GDP per capita are expected to be lower than historical averages, mainly due to future demographic developments and the exhaustion of significant growth drivers that operated in the past.​

Suggested Citation

  • Eyal Argov & Shay Tsur, 2019. "A Long-Run Growth Model for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.04, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2019.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Ziesemer, 2022. "Global Dynamics of Gini Coefficients of Education for 146 Countries: Update to 1950-2015 and a Compact Guide to the Literature," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 85-95.
    2. Shay Tsur & Eyal Argov, 2019. "Conditional Convergence and Future TFP Growth in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.05, Bank of Israel.
    3. Tanya Suhoy & Maayan Tropper-Wachtel, 2021. "Global Warming Effects on Electricity Demand in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.17, Bank of Israel.
    4. Shraberman, Kyrill & Weinreb, Alexander A., 2024. "The fiscal consequences of changing demographic composition: Aging and differential growth across Israel’s three major subpopulations," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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