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Reexamining the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Interwar Demand for Money

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College)

  • Clifford F. Thies

    (Shenandoah University)

Abstract

This paper reexamines whether the term structure of interest rates, rather than merely a single interest rate, should be included in the demand for money of the interwar era. In contrast to earlier work, we use cointegration techniques to model the equilibrium/error correction process, and find that a sufficiently rich dynamic model using a single interest rate has considerable explanatory power. Nevertheless, we conclude that the inclusion of the term structure may help to explain the turbulent monetary dynamics of the Depression era.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & Clifford F. Thies, 1997. "Reexamining the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Interwar Demand for Money," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 384, Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, June.
    2. Clifford F. Thies, 1985. "New Estimates Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: 1920–1939," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 297-306, December.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1988. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1111-1141, December.
    4. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    6. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1982. "The Effect of the Term Structure of Interest Rates on the Demand for Money in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 201-212, February.
    7. W. Braddock Hickman, 1960. "Statistical Measures of Corporate Bond Financing since 1900," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick60-1, June.
    8. Christopher F. Baum & Clifford F. Thies, 1988. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Demand for Money During the Great Depression," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 177, Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Hafer, R. W., 1985. "The stability of the short-run money demand function, 1920-1939," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 271-295, July.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:79:y:1977:i:4:p:397-416 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    12. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    14. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Money and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975, pages 477-587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Baum, Christopher F & Thies, Clifford F, 1992. "On the Construction of Monthly Term Structures of U.S. Interest Rates, 1919-1930," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Kluwer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 221-246, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. C. P. Barros & João Ricardo Faria & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "The demand for money in Angola," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 408-420, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand for money; interwar period; term structure of interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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