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Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates

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  • John Barkoulas

    (Boston College)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College)

Abstract

We investigate the low frequency properties of three- and six- month rates for Eurocurrency deposits denominated in eight major currencies with specific emphasis on fractional dynamics. Using the fractional integration testing procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), we find that several of the Eurocurrency deposit rates are fractionally integrated processes with long memory. These findings have important implications for econometric modeling, forecasting, and cointegration testing of Eurocurrency rates.

Suggested Citation

  • John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 317., Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:317
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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    11. Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alaña, 2019. "Testing the Fisher hypothesis in the G-7 countries using I(d) techniques," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 159, pages 140-150.
    3. Li, Daye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2016. "Why the long-term auto-correlation has not been eliminated by arbitragers: Evidences from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 167-178.
    4. Mulligan, Robert F. & Koppl, Roger, 2011. "Monetary policy regimes in macroeconomic data: An application of fractal analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 201-211, May.
    5. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Miguel Ángel Martin-Valmayor, 2022. "Non-linearities and persistence in US long-run interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 366-370, February.
    7. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
    8. Aouad Hadjer, Soumia & Taouli, Mustapha Kamel & Benbouziane, Mohamed, 2012. "Modélisation du Comportement du Taux de Change du Dinar Algérien: Une Investigation Empirique par la Méthode ARFIMA [Modeling of the Algerian Dinar Exchange Rate: An empirical investigation using t," MPRA Paper 38605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
    11. Mulligan, Robert F. & Lombardo, Gary A., 2004. "Maritime businesses: volatile stock prices and market valuation inefficiencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 321-336, May.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A Gil-Alana & Olaoluwa Simon Yaya, 2022. "Modeling persistence and non-linearities in the US treasury 10-year bond yields," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1221-1229.
    13. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Evidence of persistence in U.S. short and long-term interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 775-789.
    14. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    15. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2006. "Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 291-302.
    16. J. Eduardo Vera‐Valdés, 2020. "On long memory origins and forecast horizons," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 811-826, August.
    17. Ellis, Craig & Wilson, Patrick, 2004. "Another look at the forecast performance of ARFIMA models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-81.
    18. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2008. "Forecasting Interest Rates in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-41, March.
    19. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Atreya Chakraborty, 1998. "Persistent Dependence in Foreign Exchange Rates? A Reexamination," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 377, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 21 Apr 2000.
    20. Margaret R. Maier & Nigel Meade, 2003. "Evidence of long memory in short-term interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 553-568.
    21. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 1999. "Fractional cointegration, long memory, and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-316, September.
    22. Nuruddeen Usman & Martins Apinran, 2024. "Policy rates in ECOWAS: are they fractionally cointegrated?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-15, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurocurrency rates; fractional cointegration; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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