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An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies

Author

Listed:
  • Steinar Holden

    (University of Oslo)

  • Gisle James Natvik

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Adrien Vigier

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

We develop a model of credit rating agencies (CRAs) based on reputation concerns. Ratings affect investors' choice and, thereby, also issuers' access to funding and default risk. We show that - in equilibrium - the informational content of credit ratings is inferior to that of CRAs' private information. We find that CRAs have a pro-cyclical impact on default risk: in a liquidity boom CRAs help resolve investors' coordination problem, and lower the probability of default; in a liquidity crunch CRAs raise the probability of default. Furthermore, rating standards tend to be pro-cyclical, while biased CRA-incentives will ultimately be selfdefeating.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinar Holden & Gisle James Natvik & Adrien Vigier, 2012. "An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies," Working Paper 2012/23, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_23
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    Cited by:

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    2. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anna Gibert, 2016. "The Signaling Role of Fiscal Austerity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1623, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Gibert, Anna, 2022. "Signalling creditworthiness with fiscal austerity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agencies; Global games; Coordination failure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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