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Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover

Author

Listed:
  • Carlson Mark

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

  • Hale Galina B

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

In order to explore how credit ratings may affect financial markets, we analyze a global game model of debt roll-over in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. We find that the addition of the rating agency has a non-monotonic effect on the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals. We also establish that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have a unique equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlson Mark & Hale Galina B, 2006. "Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.6:y:2006:i:2:n:8
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-5998.1375
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    2. Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
    3. José Jorge, 2016. "Sovereign Ratings and Investor Behavior," CEF.UP Working Papers 1601, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Giovanni Ferri & Andrea Morone, 2014. "The effect of rating agencies on herd behaviour," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 9(1), pages 107-127, April.
    5. Celjo-Hörhager, Sanela & Niessen, Alexandra, 2006. "How do self-fulfilling prophecies affect financial ratings? An experimental study," CFR Working Papers 06-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Mahmoud Elamin, 2012. "Believe only what you see: credit rating agencies, structured finance, and bonds," Working Papers (Old Series) 1222, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Grace Weishi Gu & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2023. "Costly Information And Sovereign Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1397-1429, November.
    8. Steinar Holden & Gisle James Natvik & Adrien Vigier, 2012. "An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies," Working Paper 2012/23, Norges Bank.
    9. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2015. "Do investors rely too much on public information to be justified by its accuracy? An experimental study," FinMaP-Working Papers 30, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. Simone Alfarano & Andrea Morone & Eva Camacho, 2011. "The role of public and private information in a laboratory financial market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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