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Feedback Effects of Credit Ratings

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  • Gustavo Manso

    (MIT)

Abstract

Rating agencies are often criticized for being biased in favor of borrowers, for being too slow to downgrade following credit quality deterioration, and for being oligopolists. Based on a model that takes into account the feedback effects of credit ratings, I show that: (i) a rating agency should focus not only on the accuracy of its ratings but also on the effects of its ratings on the probability of survival of the borrower; (ii) even when a rating agency pursues an accurate rating policy, multi-notch downgrades or immediate default may occur in response to small shocks to fundamentals; (iii) increased competition between rating agencies can lead to rating downgrades, increasing default frequency and reducing welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Feedback Effects of Credit Ratings," 2011 Meeting Papers 1338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1338
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    3. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1443-1508, July.
    4. Steinar Holden & Gisle James Natvik & Adrien Vigier, 2012. "An equilibrium model of credit rating agencies," Working Paper 2012/23, Norges Bank.
    5. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.

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