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Un modelo semi estructural de proyecciones macroeconómicas para el Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Carballo

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • José Ignacio González

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Margarita Güenaga

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • José Mourelle

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Gabriela Romaniello

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

This paper presents the characteristics of Modelo de Proyecciones Macroeconómicas (MPM), which allows both forecasts and simulations of macroeconomic variables. It is a New Keynesian model with price stickiness. Therefore, movements in the nominal sector, and especially in monetary policy, may have effects on real variables in the economy in the short term. We also analyze the relationships among the model variables when a money market is included and the effects of imposing two alternative rules of monetary policy. The first rule is based on an interest rate (Taylor), and the second in monetary aggregates (McCallum)

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Carballo & José Ignacio González & Margarita Güenaga & José Mourelle & Gabriela Romaniello, 2015. "Un modelo semi estructural de proyecciones macroeconómicas para el Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2015012, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2015012
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/12.2015.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Gianelli, 2009. "Un modelo estructural pequeño para la economía uruguaya," Documentos de trabajo 2009001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. ""Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan" Reply to Comments by Kunio Okina," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 55-57, December.
    3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, December.
    4. Jaromír Beneš & Jaromír Hurník & David Vávra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(03-04), pages 166-194, May.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 388-391, May.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    7. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    8. ., 2008. "Population Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Dirk Broeders & Sylvester Eiffinger & Aerdt Houben (ed.), Frontiers in Pension Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth Bucacos & Patricia Carballo & Miguel Mello & Jorge Ponce, 2022. "COVID-19 in Uruguay: A survey of policy responses and their impact," Documentos de trabajo 2022002, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Bucacos, Elizabeth & Carballo, Patricia & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "Policy responses to COVID-19 in Uruguay," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semi structural model; monetary aggregates; policy rule; Uruguay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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