Un modelo macroeconométrico de estimación trimestral para la economía uruguaya

Macroeconomic forecasting models are a key tool in inflation targeting regimes such as the one the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) has been building in the last few years. This paper exposes the main equations of the Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (QMEM), whose main goal is to provide a coherent quantitative framework for medium and long run forecasts. The motivation of this paper is to present one of the tools used by the staff of the Central Bank for macroeconomic diagnostic, useful for the discussion of the macroeconomic framework under different scenarios. The model is built in four main blocks: a supply side, where potential output and labor market equilibrium are determined; a demand side, deriving National Accounts expenditure components and trade balance; a nominal block for the price level, nominal wages and the exchange rate; and an interest rates block, which estimates the yield curve. Several satellites models are developed from this central model, which provide an indepth and complementary analysis in specific topics. By imposing restrictions on long-run relationships the model draws an equilibrium compatible with the assumptions for the exogenous variables, making the QMEM suitable for forecasting and simulation exercises.