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An explanation of negative swap spreads: demand for duration from underfunded pension plans

Author

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  • Sven Klingler
  • Suresh Sundaresan

Abstract

The 30-year U.S. swap spreads have been negative since September 2008. We offer a novel explanation for this persistent anomaly. Through an illustrative model, we show that underfunded pension plans optimally use swaps for duration hedging. Combined with dealer banks' balance sheet constraints, this demand can drive swap spreads to become negative. Empirically, we construct a measure of the aggregate funding status of Defined Benefit pension plans and show that this measure is a significant explanatory variable of 30-year swap spreads. We find a similar link between pension funds' underfunding and swap spreads for two other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2018. "An explanation of negative swap spreads: demand for duration from underfunded pension plans," BIS Working Papers 705, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bush Georgia, 2019. "Bank foreign currency funding and currency markets: the case of Mexico post GFC," Working Papers 2019-01, Banco de México.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-109, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2018.
    4. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    duration; swap spreads; balance sheetconstraints; funding status of pension plans; defined benefits; repo; LIBOR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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