IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Isard

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department)

Abstract

This paper focuses on an accounting framework that is useful for distinguishing between the effects on exchange rates of four separate factors: relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk. The framework rests upon an approximate identity, which is transformed into a behavioural model of exchange rates. The model is then applied in an attempt to explain the month-to-month behaviour of the US dollar versus the Deutsche Mark during the 1975-79 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Isard, 1980. "Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk," BIS Working Papers 4, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work4.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work4.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:229-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1978. "A Stochastic Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(1), pages 149-164.
    4. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. John R. Martin & Paul R. Masson, 1979. "Exchange Rates and Portfolio Balance," NBER Working Papers 0377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Isard, 1982. "An accounting framework and some issues for modelling how exchange rates respond to the news," International Finance Discussion Papers 200, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    3. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2021. "Exchange Rate Determination: The Portfolio-Balance Approach," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-2.
    4. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2018. "How Efficient is the Foreign Exchange Market?," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 4(3), pages 293-326, July.
    5. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2017. "Tests of Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(10), pages 218-239, 10-2017.
    6. Threemonkong, Attapol, 1992. "An intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium model of exchange rates and external imbalances," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000012961, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Peter Isard, 1983. "What's wrong with empirical exchange rate models: some critical issues and new directions," International Finance Discussion Papers 226, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Peter Hooper & John E. Morton, 1980. "Fluctuations in the dollar: a model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Michael M. Hutchison, 1984. "Intervention, deficit finance and real exchange rates: the case of Japan," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 27-44.
    10. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Isard, 1980. "Factors determining exchange rates: the roles of relative price levels, balances of payments, interest rates and risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 171, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Backus, David K. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1989. "On the denomination of government debt : A critique of the portfolio balance approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 359-376, May.
    3. Simon Neaime, 2000. "A Perspective on the Future Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: Implications for the Peripheral Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 2032, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2000.
    4. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233167, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
    7. Joseph Bisignano & Kevin Hoover, 1982. "Some suggested improvements to a simple portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination with special reference to the U. S. dollar/Canadian dollar rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 118(1), pages 19-38, March.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1978. "A portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the dollar-mark rate, May 1973-June 1977," International Finance Discussion Papers 123, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jeffrey Goldstein & David Meerschwam, 1984. "International Portfolio Diversification: Short-Term Financial Assets and Gold," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 199-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    15. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-12, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    16. Harkness, Jon P., 1980. "Opec Versus A Large Open Economy: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275171, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    17. Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.
    18. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Căpraru, Bogdan & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2017. "The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates in a small open emerging economy: The case of Romania," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-274.
    19. Carrasco, Alex & Florián, David & Nivín, Rafael, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2019-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.