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EME bond portfolio flows and long-term interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic

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  • Peter Hördahl
  • Ilhyock Shim

Abstract

Bond portfolio outflows from emerging market economies (EMEs) are typically associated with currency depreciation and rising domestic long-term interest rates. This relationship asserted itself in a particularly stark way during the Covid-19 crisis in mid-March 2020. The relationship between bond portfolio outflows and long-term rates varies across EMEs, depending on factors such as bond market depth, FX market functioning and sovereign risk. The impact of these factors on the relationship has been thrown into sharper relief during the Covid-19 pandemic. Recent policy responses, such as bond purchase programmes, duration swaps and efforts to stabilise exchange rates, can play an important role in maintaining financial stability in EMEs when they face bond outflows. Policy measures to develop deep and liquid bond markets and strengthen the resilience of local currency bond and FX markets are likely to enhance market functioning in the longer term.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hördahl & Ilhyock Shim, 2020. "EME bond portfolio flows and long-term interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic," BIS Bulletins 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2022. "Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 411-447, September.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    5. Marko Mravlak, 2024. "Investor Activity in EFSF/ESM secondary bond markets," Working Papers 62, European Stability Mechanism, revised 15 Jul 2024.
    6. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Macro-Financial Stability Frameworks: Experience and Challenges," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Claudio Borio & Edward S Robinson & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICY IN A GLOBALISED WORLD: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Selected Papers from the Asian Monetary Policy Forum 202, chapter 3, pages 2-49, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Daniela Gabor, 2021. "The Wall Street Consensus," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 429-459, May.
    10. Ferry Syarifuddin & Maman Setiawan, 2021. "Capital Flow Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic: Cross-Country Contagion Effect Among Asean5 And Projection Of The Impacts For The Indonesian Economy," Working Papers WP/08/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    11. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    12. Stefan Avdjiev & Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2020. "International dimensions of EME corporate debt," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    13. Sugandi, Eric Alexander, 2020. "Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1198, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Eric Sugandi & Ulrich Volz, 2021. "COVID‐19, asset markets and capital flows," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 498-538, October.
    15. Facundo Abraham & Juan J. Cortina & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2020. "The Expansion of Corporate Bond Markets in East Asia and Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo 18594, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    16. Enrique Alberola & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Fiscal response to the COVID‐19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies†," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 459-468, October.
    17. Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Fiorella De Fiore & James Yetman, 2021. "A global database on central banks' monetary responses to Covid-19," BIS Working Papers 934, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Gabor, Daniela, 2020. "The Wall Street Consensus," SocArXiv wab8m, Center for Open Science.
    19. Ewa Dziwok & Marta A. Karaś, 2021. "Systemic Illiquidity Noise-Based Measure—A Solution for Systemic Liquidity Monitoring in Frontier and Emerging Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-29, July.
    20. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    21. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 23, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Mert Onen & Hyun Song Shin & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset," BIS Working Papers 1075, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Egemen Eren & Philip Wooldridge, 2021. "Non-bank financial institutions and the functioning of government bond markets," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 119.
    24. Egemen Eren & Philip Wooldridge, 2022. "The role of non-bank financial institutions in cross-border spillovers," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 129.
    25. Beirne, John Beirne & Renzhi, Nuobu & Sugandi, Eric Alexander & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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